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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah in Dec we flooded N America with mild Pac air. January when we popped the PNA we still had the effects of that with no cold available in source regions. Canada is colder now so if we pop a PNA in Feb things may turn around. That NAO is why I refuse to give up this year.
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I saw the 12zeps and pna looks to go neutral if its correct
 
Mr. Golf said:
Do you think we will be able to get any significant cold air in February, esp with the lag effect from last months SSW, which normally is 30+ days? We haven't been cold at all really. Imo, it will be an incredibly bad break if we dont, considering we have had a -nao/ao more often than in many years.
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If there is a true lag effect to the SSW bringing cold then we should see something around Valentine's day. I'm not sold on the theory to be honest but I do like the idea of potentially cooling back by then.
 
iGRXY said:
-NAOs are great but they're not guaranteed greatness either. You normally have to have a couple other things go right to help you out. Also the elephant in the room that we aren't allowed to talk about (climate change) likely has made things much more difficult to get winter storms here in the southeast. I'd hedge my bets that say 8/10 times we will likely have to have the pacific and atlantic on our side to be able to get winter storms down here for the foreseeable future. You may luck out and have just a -NAO and score but it's not like it used to be in the past anymore.
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I have been saying the same thing. Historically, a -NAO is the biggest factor in my area of NC for getting snow storms based on a study done by the NC Climate Office. But maybe that is changing because it really doesn't happen as often now as it used to.
 
SD said:
Source region hasn't really been that cold. Most cold has been on the other side of the world. No cross polar flow to tap that cold. Weve been left with basically modified Canadian airmasses for weeks.
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This is it really , crazy to think about but it goes to show how cold Siberia is and how much of the world it affects. Our coldest temperatures are all associated with Siberian outbreaks and cross polar flow . Same for Asia and Europe ! North America while very poleward , doesn’t have enough landmass at polar latitudes to make for the cold super powerful highs Siberia does .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lfg ! View attachment 67847
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Hrrr has some solid storms with 35-40kft tops on these, with a inversion in place, these things are gonna be loud asf if your at the right spot, wouldn’t shock me if some produce small hail given the steep mid level lapse rates in place, but I’m definitely staying up for this 83C88857-CB29-42AC-8CD1-EBFC50B992CE.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr has some solid storms with 35-40kft tops on these, with a inversion in place, these things are gonna be loud asf if your at the right spot, wouldn’t shock me if some produce small hail given the steep mid level lapse rates in place, but I’m definitely staying up for this View attachment 67848
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Heck, you don't even have to be in the right spot. With that inversion layer those rumbles are going to travel. I love inversion layer storms!
 
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Brick Tamland said:
I have been saying the same thing. Historically, a -NAO is the biggest factor in my area of NC for getting snow storms based on a study done by the NC Climate Office. But maybe that is changing because it really doesn't happen as often now as it used to.
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I think climate change is real, but I think the effects you’re speaking of would be something that happens over the course of decades and not years. The simple fact is, we haven’t seen enough sustained -NAO periods over the last decade to have a good sample size. As was already mentioned, the mild Pacific air that flooded Canada during December really effected our source region and there hasn’t been any cross polar flow to tap into Siberian air, so we’ve been left with modified Canadian airmasses that weren’t very cold to start with. The good news is that Canada has really cooled down over the last several weeks and has built up snow cover.
 
Chazwin said:
I think climate change is real, but I think the effects you’re speaking of would be something that happens over the course of decades and not years. The simple fact is, we haven’t seen enough sustained -NAO periods over the last decade to have a good sample size. As was already mentioned, the mild Pacific air that flooded Canada during December really effected our source region and there hasn’t been any cross polar flow to tap into Siberian air, so we’ve been left with modified Canadian airmasses that weren’t very cold to start with. The good news is that Canada has really cooled down over the last several weeks and has built up snow cover.
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That will be our last opportunity or chance mid February or just before. That's why the -nao hasn't helped due to no cold air in canada due to chanuk winds blowing
 
Chazwin said:
I think climate change is real, but I think the effects you’re speaking of would be something that happens over the course of decades and not years. The simple fact is, we haven’t seen enough sustained -NAO periods over the last decade to have a good sample size. As was already mentioned, the mild Pacific air that flooded Canada during December really effected our source region and there hasn’t been any cross polar flow to tap into Siberian air, so we’ve been left with modified Canadian airmasses that weren’t very cold to start with. The good news is that Canada has really cooled down over the last several weeks and has built up snow cover.
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I’m willing to bet if we had the proper snow/above normal snowcover to our north with the first storm in early January, there would have been more wintry precipitation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m willing to bet if we had the proper snow/above normal snowcover to our north with the first storm in early January, there would have been more wintry precipitation
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That is why I’m a little intrigued about the possibility for this weekend. It looks like there will be some snow cover to our north and with the cold dry airmass that models show filtering in. As for going forward into February, as much as climo says a Niña February should be very mild, this just hasn’t been the normal LaNina. It would not shock me at all to stay in a CAD pattern with some potential for most of the month.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr has some solid storms with 35-40kft tops on these, with a inversion in place, these things are gonna be loud asf if your at the right spot, wouldn’t shock me if some produce small hail given the steep mid level lapse rates in place, but I’m definitely staying up for this View attachment 67848
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I'd love to have thunder and 33F cold rain :oops:
 
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