That low really just killed any chance of a significant event. Not sure what could change in the next couple of days to improve the situation...the UK is threading the needle near perfectly.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
That low really just killed any chance of a significant event. Not sure what could change in the next couple of days to improve the situation...the UK is threading the needle near perfectly.
Jon
Member
Yeah but all things aren’t equal here...There’s been a change in the timing this run. The 12z euro sped up a little bit this run. It’s marginal, but the cold is there if the Euro sticks to its original timing. For instance, the bulk of precip on a lot of these runs and including a lot of other modeling, occurs between 1am-7am for Central NC. 12z euro has the bulk of precip occurring before 1am, when temps are warm at the surface.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
At least we're headed in the right direction but still a long way to go for NC.
Also, Euro isn't infallible at day 4. Look at how it's trended for the system affecting the northern plains in a couple of days...much more amped. Which has impacted the MA folks from getting an event. The MA was looking at potentially 2 events this week just 24-36 hours ago...and now that's really diminished.
The euro has made massive steps towards a more favorable look in the medium range, a few more of these and we have a miller B/CAD situation, that TPV Phasing with our storm amplifies over the Atlantic and becomes a strong SE Canada vortex which helps us out 
It’s also called snow pack to our north will cause cad winter storm in the short to medium range. Works wonders. But need the storm to actually happen for Virginia north
Are you surprised? Went from horrendous to something close and much better 
The surface pattern is getting much better as expected towards that range, I was honestly thinking about waving the white flag but if this continues, nah lol
Do need to fix the location of our shortwave tho in the US
Do need to fix the location of our shortwave tho in the US
100% correct, I would probably tuck the surface reflection in a little closer around max delta T, natural baroclinicity along the Gulf stream, anywhere from 30-60 miles depending on where from the NC coast. UK is about perfect with the 850, starts blossoming once off ILM on a NE track. Sub 990 off the coast will be more than sufficient for a robust cold core conveyer belt, whether that's in the ATL or onshore somewhere is TBD.
EPS likes that second system FWIW
The changes ?
We could really get another go at this sort of setup lol, let’s keep it clean tho, I want me some CAD
Broken024
Member
Gefs had a similar look right?
Not as good really but it’s headed the right direction
This really isn’t bad at all. We just need a little good luck. Throw a dart at the board enough times and you’re bound to hit the bullseye
As birdbrains alluded to, if the Euro/EPS idea is right, we want this first system to deliver a nice snow to our north, as that helps the one after, snowpack to our north isn’t impressive atm, I just hope we can trend better with it and keep it a CAD setup rather, here north of CLT, I’d rather have a miller B/CAD setup over a miller A, given we get screwed on a often back west with those
