• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Clem282340 said:
I hope man we need all the help we can get
Click to expand...
Not really. The energy in Canada has trended south east by a good bit over the last 48 hours which helps push our vort further south and we have less WAA out ahead of the storm with less ridging. It’s really not that far off.the Euro had the vort moving right over us. It wouldn’t take much to much for it to drop another 100 miles south and have it move south of I20 for us to have a realistic chance. Again you have to have the trends continue for a more southern solution but we still have some time left. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for it but the probability is still there.
 
If we could get that energy in Canada out ahead and have it sitting on the US/CAN border we would be in the jackpot. The type of shift south you saw on the UK and Euro tonight is exactly what we need to happen again to get GSP to CLT in the mix for this storm. Still have plenty of time but our luck is also God awful so who knows
 
At this point I’m rooting for a southeast trend with the TPV, not only does that help with the first system, but it helps with the pattern after by effectively creating a stronger vortex near SE Canada
 
Looks like the 00z GEFS was a blip. Clearly not having the upper low in Canada slide east (or at least be more strung out) was the better solution, but just doesn't appear like that is going to be the outcome.

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_19.png

download (10).png

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_18.png

download (11).png
 
IMO what we are rooting for now (obviously) is the UKMET solution. That closed ULL in Canada has to get far enough out ahead of the shortwave to keep the height field suppressed, allowing the surface low to stay south of NC and redevelop offshore, which then wraps in enough cold air to save the day. This is far from the more ideal solution of having the cold air in place out ahead of the system like would have been the case without this upper low in Canada, but the fact we even have a needle to thread at this juncture is something I didn't think we'd have yesterday so I'll take it.

500hv.conus (5).png

sfctd_b.conus (1).png

500hv.conus (6).png

sfctd_b.conus.png
 
At least on the GFS anyway, the extended still shows very cold air building in Canada. It's unreliable way out, but I'd rather see that than all of the cold hanging out in Siberia. Who knows.
 
14A0432B-2ED9-43FC-BA51-3336FE7BC4BE.gif
TPV still shifting, just not with aggressive “ticks” like yesterday. We’re down to baby ticks SE, I’ll take it though. Going to be a fun storm to track, even as we get soaked in another cool rain here in SC.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top