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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
headed the other way with pushing that TPV piece has introduced some really cold air at H85 closer, we need it to keep going that way and somehow get a more southern track with the cutoff, just a little bit more south helps, 2 more ticks of this and it starts wrapping in this really cold air aloft View attachment 67323
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Huh that’s funny because a certain someone just said a few minutes ago that TPV moving SE doesn’t matter? Oops! Guess it does after all!
 
sdm47 said:
He doesn't. I'm sorry, but anyone who doesn't acknowledge that high pressure is needed in a majority of southeastern U.S. winter storms has no idea what they are talking about. Sorry to burst your bubble.
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Here’s your HP. There’s also some who think a HP has to be sitting over upstate NY for cold air to funnel down. As you see pictured here, a 1041 in the Midwest is doing fairly well and trending better.

1611441794662.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh that’s funny because a certain someone just said a few minutes ago that TPV moving SE doesn’t matter? Oops! Guess it does after all!
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Wow, look at that cold air being delivered sans high pressure like the amateur said it would be. But we don't need a high to inject cold ahead of a storm do we?

gfs_Td2m_us_19.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty big medium range changes here, since that TPV is getting closer, it’s filtering in colder air aloft more View attachment 67330
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Probably for the better this piece of PV got involved, even though we had to suffer thru a few cycles of atrocious runs even to get to this slightly better but still less than ideal juncture. We can get a much bigger storm now overall if we can put the pieces in right place. It just needs to get out in front of our wave a bit more.
 
sdm47 said:
Yet a furnace at the surface because of no high pressure.

View attachment 67331
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I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
 
For a moment there I thought they shut down this thread for good. Glad they didn't. But for real, let's try to treat each other better. It's been a rough year for many of us. We all deserve respect, even if we happen to disagree with someone else's perspective. Although, it's probably best not to argue with an actual Met or a moderator. Just sayin'.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
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You've got to get it way out front though. I'm not sure if that's doable
 
If the TPV continues shifting south, we may see a weaker/flatter look like the ICON has IMO. The chance of it shearing the energy out and preventing a bomb is pretty high. I just don’t see a way at this point to shift the system south enough without also shearing it out into a weaker wave like the ICON has.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
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That would require an extreme solution. Nothing is impossible - but we aren't even in the ballpark of being close and that seems highly improbable that the magnitude of changes needed are going to happen inside of 4 days. I hear ya, you got to root for something and why not, there's nothing else to do other than root or cry, so by all means I'm rooting for it too. But as it stands now, it isn't even close IMO.
 
snowlover91 said:
If the TPV continues shifting south, we may see a weaker/flatter look like the ICON has IMO. The chance of it shearing the energy out and preventing a bomb is pretty high. I just don’t see a way at this point to shift the system south enough without also shearing it out into a weaker wave like the ICON has.
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Find a way to phase the lakes wave in, close your eyes/cross your fingers and hope for the best
 
SD said:
Find a way to phase the lakes wave in, close your eyes/cross your fingers and hope for the best
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Yeah, that's the wing and a prayer option. Probably about a 5% chance of it happening but better than 0 I guess...
 
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