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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah were definitely not done with this system, a few more ticks of that TPV piece toward the GLs and more of NC is definitely in business, it would probably mean a flatter system as well
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If this storm keeps on trending in the right direction do you think sc can get in on it as well or is this only a nc storm only
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB sticking to his guns, He's be saying this pretty much all week...........

No Changes to Double shot threat Nebraska to NJ idea.

FWIW-His comment about the GFS,
Remember the statement made on the Avenger on number 1 a week ago when the GFS was trying to run it up into the lake, that if it went to Detroit or Dayton, it would still go off Delaware. That is pure pattern recognition and understanding the GFS is never going to change as you can tinker all you want with a model and upgrade it but if its missing something, it will still make the same errors. The model is usually too far north in blocks a week or so out, then too far south as something gets closer ( 3-5 days),
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JB said a week ago this storm this week would go north while all the models showed us getting hammered.
 
There is no low level cold air source at all now. Personally I think this one is finished unless somehow the high can build in as it did before yesterday's runs, which appears not possible now. Tracking slop on the backside is almost always a losing proposition.
 
I guess this upgrade isn't much of an upgrade. GFSv16 moved towards the GFS. In my opinion, I think this storm is toast now for most of NC. The EURO/UKMET is a hard combo to beat. Maybe I'll be wrong.

GFS_PrecipType&Rate_MA_2021-01-24_12Z_FHr120_PW.png
 
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Stormdoc said:
I don’t have any doubt this can trend further south with the TPV. The issue is, can it still maintain its strength, or are we left with a weak storm over us that cannot generate enough lift like the Euro?
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Yeah, that's a great point. Even if we get it to trend South, which almost never happens, are we even going to have much of a storm system? Both the EURO and UKMET are showing weak systems.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
That wrap around moisture seems like it’s going to mean buisness .. again like I said yesterday if this thing stays north that’s the feature we are going to want to watch for snow here in NC ..
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Exactly. If I were living in the northeast quadrant of NC, I certainty wouldn't be giving up with this storm yet.
 
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