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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Nick_boynton_ said:
Someone’s getting a blizzard warning with this thing .. the way models have it combing out .. someone’s getting a crazy deform band
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I definitely believe Raleigh and places north and east from there can get in on the tip of the backend comma head as the system bombs out if the GFS is right. Its still the only model that really deepens the system that much.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I definitely believe Raleigh and places north and east from there can get in on the tip of the backend comma head as the system bombs out if the GFS is right. Its still the only model that really deepens the system that much.
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The really big fly in the ointment is that its too far north 5 days out. It's going to end up farther north or south than what's being shown currently. Hoping that it trends south is like hoping for the Braves to win the WS. It can happen, but....?

Still time, though. As all of the energy/data gets well-sampled in the next day or two, we'll know by then.
 
The good thing is that both the operational GFS and the CMC and their ensembles, keep bonafide cold air in north America from D10-D16. I can't see the EPS, but assuming that is the case, we wouldn't have to wait weeks for the next storm potential.
 
Rain Cold said:
The really big fly in the ointment is that its too far north 5 days out. It's going to end up farther north or south than what's being shown currently. Hoping that it trends south is like hoping for the Braves to win the WS. It can happen, but....?

Still time, though. As all of the energy/data gets well-sampled in the next day or two, we'll know by then.
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I need a NW trend in my neck of the woods! The cutoff from 12” to 2”, is razor thin, I’m looking at 2-4 from Monday’s storm, as of now
 
Rain Cold said:
The good thing is that both the operational GFS and the CMC and their ensembles, keep bonafide cold air in north America from D10-D16. I can't see the EPS, but assuming that is the case, we wouldn't have to wait weeks for the next storm potential.
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Correct...EPS are similar in nature. After this warm up it looks like we will moderate back to seasonal temps by the end of the first week of February. Hopefully BA into the second week of Feb. BUT those are big IFs at this point.


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JB sticking to his guns, He's be saying this pretty much all week...........

No Changes to Double shot threat Nebraska to NJ idea.

FWIW-His comment about the GFS,
Remember the statement made on the Avenger on number 1 a week ago when the GFS was trying to run it up into the lake, that if it went to Detroit or Dayton, it would still go off Delaware. That is pure pattern recognition and understanding the GFS is never going to change as you can tinker all you want with a model and upgrade it but if its missing something, it will still make the same errors. The model is usually too far north in blocks a week or so out, then too far south as something gets closer ( 3-5 days),
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Notice how its improving because that feature in SE canada is moving in a better spot View attachment 67228
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At least it's stopped the north trend for now, again different situation where things could easily come back south and would not take a huge shift.
 
metwannabe said:
At least it's stopped the north trend for now, again different situation where things could easily come back south and would not take a huge shift.
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yeah were definitely not done with this system, a few more ticks of that TPV piece toward the GLs and more of NC is definitely in business, it would probably mean a flatter system as well
 
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