Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Tarheel1]

Yea 18z EPS sucks, took a nod towards the GFS at H5, confluence is flying out the door

I love the 18z Euro!???

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON looks better, but not there yet

 

[Webberweather53]

ICON looks better, but not there yetView attachment 67151View attachment 67153View attachment 67154

This run definitely looks worse at 500mb inside day 4. Those changes propagate forward in the run this thing will shoot even further north

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run definitely looks worse at 500mb inside day 4. Those changes propagate forward in the run this thing will shoot even further north

At least better then 12z track wise, but yeah still not ideal at all

 

[NCSNOW]

Im sure by Wed or Thurs the new GFS will be back up and runing. What Karma it waits till now to shutdown.

Since its looking like that tpv vort is gonna be legit, show up in southern Canada. Im guessing we better start throwing our chips on it positioning 100 to 150 miles futher south over GL region. Webb has identified,explained well its influence pro&con.
Im weary to do this because on last nights 0z smash jobs ,it wasnt visible on the continental [NA] h5 maps. So we got real good confluence, HP strength position and struck Glory!
Ill say all models are stuborn today on it being there as well as its exact location. We cant afford for our ss vort to get out in front or its gonna get north on us. Walking a fine line/tango here and making it difficult to chose what feature we need to trend and how.

 

[Webberweather53]

At least better then 12z track wise, but yeah still not ideal at all View attachment 67156View attachment 67157

Well the SE US ridge is stronger in the short term even with a similar vort track it’s not something you wanna see because that means the mid level warm advection and boundary layer temps are starting out stronger and warmer respectively, making it harder for us to cash in even if the vort track is conducive.

 

[CaryWx]

Yeah, none of this is better for sure

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah the confluence is just hauling ass outa the NE/SE Canada as the system approaches
Man

 

[sdm47]

Our best option (IMO) is still for that piece of the vortex to never break off. 00z ICON tried to step back towards it not happening. It seems like such a razor thin margin between it happening or not, but once it's there, I'm not sure if there's going to be a way to work around it or not unless it can lift out of the way and allow the high to slide underneath it.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah the confluence is just hauling ass outa the NE/SE Canada as the system approaches
Man View attachment 67158

Yeah the big PV lobe there is the problem. Oth if it trends far enough to the southeast, gets out in front of our wave parks itself over the Great Lakes then we’ll have way more confluence than we had before

 

[Webberweather53]

This is what a stronger SE US ridge in the short term does to BL temps leading into the storm. Not doing ourselves any favors

 

[sdm47]

Yeah the big PV lobe there is the problem. Oth if it trends far enough to the southeast, gets out in front of our wave parks itself over the Great Lakes then we’ll have way more confluence than we had before

I agree that would work, but there appears to be a lot of factors that are working to limit how far east it can go before the southern wave arrives. It's almost hard to know which to root for - the unlikely chance of it not breaking off at all, or the unlikely chance it can do as you said and get far enough east to enhance confluence.

 

[ILMRoss]

Yeah the big PV lobe there is the problem. Oth if it trends far enough to the southeast, gets out in front of our wave parks itself over the Great Lakes then we’ll have way more confluence than we had before

at least the ridge was a little taller behind the shortwave

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

even if this thing were to go north like models have shown .. I think there will be a little deform band we would have to deal with .. who knows where it would set up but it could give people who get mostly rain some action

 

[NCSNOW]

DC and Va dont need that storm on the icon. They've been through enough coming out of 2020. Need to be a good neighbor and take it off their hands.
The Pitt County ,Elizabeth City crowd has to be cringing looking at how razor thin a line this is to blasting our northern coastal plain. This thing bombs coming off the coast on every run. Rare chance where its not coming up from your south, hamering in WAA. Spring 1980 style

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SER flexing a bit more this run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Track is better

 

[lexxnchloe]

Much better.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol this is basically a warmer version of the early jan system (less confluence), and not cut off
But we’ve really loss the confluence