Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The good news is we're on the verge of seeing Virginia getting left out too.

PA looking golden. WV ski resorts are going to get smoked.

 

[LukeBarrette]

The good news is we're on the verge of seeing Virginia getting left out too.

The good news is we're on the verge of seeing Virginia getting left out too.

Do not leave us out too ??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol there goes warm days East of the mountains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pain.

 

[blueheronNC]

At least we have some mid-upper 70s coming on Monday and Tuesday for some January boating along the coast

 

[LickWx]

Feb 2018

Feb 2017!!!! Even more great . We had like what, 4 days in the 80s here !

 

[Nomanslandva]

That was a wild ride the last 24 hours. From too far north 12z yesterday to better 18Z to epic 00Z to looking like it may be getting too far south (for me)....then completely off the rails in the other direction. We just can't even begin to trust anything outside 3 or 4 days.

 

[KyloG]

I know I’ve been beating a dead ? all week and I’m sorry for that..but that doesn’t make me any less right #painView attachment 67121

It was wrong last night when it showed a foot across NC and it was wrong at the 18z run. The Euro was to far north with the system affecting Chicago at day 6 but it seems dialed in now. Let's see how the Euro looks this weekend. Remember, the 12z UK was a whiff almost, 18z ICON looked solid.

Edit: Now watch all the 0z models ram up into PA.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is the game over with for the storm or are we still in it

We don’t know

 

[packfan98]

@KyloG @Myfrotho704_ @Ollie Williams. Any of y’all got the 18z EPS? From what I saw, it looks to be much less suppressed with the moisture. Could be a good run for NC, but might be trending towards the gfs?

EDIT. Nevermind, looks like it became a mid-Atlantic special.

 

[Thor]

 

[Ethan80963]

Womp

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yea 18z EPS sucks, took a nod towards the GFS at H5, confluence is flying out the door

 

[mrdaddyman]

This is the last model we've got right now. If this goes North at 00Z we can probably hang it up.

 

[Metwannabe]

Didn't realize Rah NWS was still fairly bullish hmmm

The next system will also emanate from the SW US and lift atop the
sub-tropical ridge on Wednesday, but with more downstream blocking,
the shortwave maintains more amplitude and moves further east,
inducing stronger cyclogenesis off the carolina coast by Thursday.
1040mb high pressure over eastern Canada is also in better position
to phase cold air with moisture associated with the shortwave. The
GFS is much more amplified with the shortwave and surface low, and
correspondingly produces a lot of precip than the weaker and more
suppressed ECWMF. Thermal profiles would support wintry precip
across the northern half of the CWA on Thursday, but confidence in
details remains very low given the shortwave and jet energy are
still well out over the Pacific NW and thus the storm track is
uncertain.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

How did the nam look? I know it probably doesn't go out far enough

 

[CaryWx]

They've dropped the rain/snow text and likely waiting on 00z euro run to see where things are.

 

[Metwannabe]

They've dropped the rain/snow text and likely waiting on 00z euro run to see where things are.

Not everywhere not yet anyway haha

 

[NCSNOW]

This is the last model we've got right now. If this goes North at 00Z we can probably hang it up.

View attachment 67150

It is #2 best model at verification,right behind euro thats bouncing around somewhat.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is the last model we've got right now. If this goes North at 00Z we can probably hang it up.

View attachment 67150

Even if every model goes to crap for one run it’s not gonna be time to throw in the towel. We still have 2.5-3 days for things to trend better or worse