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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

MichaelJ said:
Just strictly going by Climatology, I still think the north of 40 people will have snow followed by ice while those in the southern and central Piedmont will get both but with a much quicker changeover to ice. Far northern Ga and SC would be mostly ice but there is a long way to go yet and we will see several different solutions before this event occurs.
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Some of this depends on the strength of the high and the depth of the wedge. But yes for now certainly those are the most likely distributions depending on how the high trends.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Gonna need that high to trend stronger and south. Already a close call for most Carolina folks on this board. A few more ticks NW with that low and it’s another heartbreaker.View attachment 66751
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If you get the high stronger it may help to keep the wedge front and corresponding low track along said front further south. One would think. In theory. If nothing else changes. Lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Snow cover extent to our north over CAD source regions in the NE US is pretty close to normal for modern mid-winter CAD. Typically wanna see snow pack down to at least the I-70 corridor in PA and looks like we will have that here.

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Let’s hope areas up north... cash in the next few days
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Gonna need that high to trend stronger and south. Already a close call for most Carolina folks on this board. A few more ticks NW with that low and it’s another heartbreaker.View attachment 66751
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Honestly I think with that amount of high pressure around this will have some good low level cold with it ... probably fairly persistent as well .. I could see this trending into an ice storm for a larger area but I don’t see a more rainy solution for at least the Piedmont regions of course
 
More ridging out ahead means a more Miller B low. HP is definitely building in but SC isn’t out of the game for wintry weather but as for snow? Yeah that looks like a long shot for almost everyone south of I40. NE GA and the upstate would likely be almost all ZR and from the border to I40 would be a mix of sleet and ZR. Maybe some onset snow. North of there is where you could get into some 50/50 snow and sleet. But it’s getting that classic ice storm look.
 
Also to already have your temps right at freezing 7 days out isn’t a good sign as these things almost always trend colder (verbatim if we keep the HP trending stronger and pushing further south). Might be the first true ice storm around here at least. Usually have been either been an ice potential with sleet turning out to be the most precip type or you’re hovering between 31-32 degrees and struggle to get a bunch of ice accrual. To have temps this close this far out is worrisome for me at least.
 
The most important thing right now to me is that we’re seeing the ingredients there on the modeling, especially the trend of decent high pressure in the northeast. Also there is definitely support for that time period as the EPS has had a signal during it for a few days now. Also I definitely like the trend of wanting to put down more snow cover over the northeast in the next few days as well.
 
Since I'm gonna be in the mountains, I'll head to Bristol
hrrr_asnow_seus_25.png
 
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