Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

A -pna is definitely not good. I guess convection is in the maritime continent or we wouldn't be having this pattern.

If the -NAO/ corresponding trough under the block is in place then the -PNA May serve us a shortwave handoff under the block, like the “threat” we’re seeing around d8-10, but this mainly applies to CAD regions (VA/NC/SC/NGA), would help if we could get ridging poleward around AK to unlock some deeper cold

 

[Mr. Golf]

A -PNA doesn’t matter, as long as there isn’t ridging in the east. To get massive cold, we need strong riding over/north of Alaska to promote cross polar flow.

We haven't got that Ollie. We can't get the mechanism to deliver it for us.

 

[Ollie Williams]

We haven't got that Ollie. We can't get the mechanism to deliver it for us.

A -NAO can suppress the ridge in the east. What I’m saying is that the PNA didn’t screw the pooch, the EPO did.

 

[Mr. Golf]

If the -NAO/ corresponding trough under the block is in place then the -PNA May serve us a shortwave handoff under the block, like the “threat” we’re seeing around d8-10, but this mainly applies to CAD regions (VA/NC/SC/NGA), would help if we could get ridging poleward around AK to unlock some deeper cold

I dont personally believe that will happen with the west based nina now. Epo is king of cold regardless

 

[Mr. Golf]

A -NAO can suppress the ridge in the east. What I’m saying is that the PNA didn’t screw the pooch, the EPO did.

We haven't had a -epo in a while.

 

[Ollie Williams]

We haven't had a -epo in a while.

When we do, it’s poorly tilted. Then we get a - PNA +NAO

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah most of the time we get a suppressed Aleutian/NPAC ridge rather then a -EPO, I think what we’re banking on is for it to go poleward/into
The arctic, like this

 

[Mr. Golf]

Yeah most of the time we get a suppressed Aleutian/NPAC ridge rather then a -EPO, I think what we’re banking on is for it to go poleward/into
The arctic, like this View attachment 66647

If that actually occurs, is that a colder pattern?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If that actually occurs, is that a colder pattern?

Probably, especially the more East you go, problem is getting it to last on models

 

[Mr. Golf]

Probably, especially the more East you go, problem is getting it to last on models View attachment 66648View attachment 66649

I'm banking on the SSW to save us in that 30 day timeframe or I'm done getting excited about them

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’ll thats interesting

 

[Mr. Golf]

We’ll thats interesting View attachment 66651View attachment 66650

Ridge over Alaska?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s little shift made everything colder

 

[Mr. Golf]

That’s little shift made everything colder View attachment 66652View attachment 66653

If it could lock in through March, I would give up my left pinky for that solution

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Tbh I like this look this far out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m a fan of this look, GFS was overall suppressed/flat but I love the big high pressure

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Wow 0Z Gfs improved a lot maybe 18z Para Gfs was on to something.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Flizzard watch

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Last 3 runs have been massive improvements, more we head this direction we slowly tap into more cold

 

[SD]

Last 3 runs have been massive improvements, more we head this direction we slowly tap into more cold View attachment 66660View attachment 66661

Why not just go ahead and fully rex the pac and release the hounds