Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah H5 is shifting bigly each run in at the edge of the medium range, this could be back to a 60 degree rainstorm tonight or even rain fizzling with a ridge reload, lol

Or strong CAD Miller B with intense back deformation band as cold air wraps around and creates blizzard conditions from Charlotte to Charleston .... ? #GetWeenied

 

[tramadoc]

Ima ask Ronnie to join, so he can talk weather on here

Bruh

 

[SD]

Yeah H5 is shifting bigly each run in at the edge of the medium range, this could be back to a 60 degree rainstorm tonight or even rain fizzling with a ridge reload, lol

I wonder if we will see more nao dominance over time

 

[Rain Cold]

This is frustratingView attachment 66473

This is winter

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

not at all what I was hoping for

 

[Rain Cold]

not at all what I was hoping for

They probably lean on Nina climo farther out in time, which if so, I would guess skews heavily warm. So far, I would say Nina climo hasn't fared so well. Should that continue, I could see significant risk to their forecast...again, assuming that they're accounting for a Nina base state.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Webber from last January....
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
View attachment 30307

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

View attachment 30312



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.

That's January. Phase 7 is nowhere near as favorable in February.

 

[Chazwin]

That's January. Phase 7 is nowhere near as favorable in February.View attachment 66483

It’s not as favorable but it doesn’t appear to be much worse than any other phases that month. I’m surprised to see so few storms in phase 1 or 2... I’ve always understood 8,1, and 2 is where we want it in February

 

[J.C.]

That's January. Phase 7 is nowhere near as favorable in February.View attachment 66483

So crazy about phases 3 and 4 in February, maybe next month is our month.

 

[SD]

So crazy about phases 3 and 4 in February, maybe next month is our month.

Wavelengths start changing as we come out of deep winter

I'd guess that the p3-4 systems were 2nd half of Feb

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wavelengths start changing as we come out of deep winter

Shortening wavelengths is really what provided that NGA winter storm last year, If there one solid Advantage we have going forward, it’s that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[ATLwxfan]

Judah punting on cold until mid-February. Which let’s face it, means we might be finished before we got started.


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[Rain Cold]

Judah punting on cold until mid-February. Which let’s face it, means we might be finished before we got started.


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This guy is really a bad forecaster, and his indexes hold little forecasting value. I mean, I appreciate his research, but he hasn't demonstrated any reliable skill yet as it relates to winter forecasting. Same with BAM. They're both fairly useless.

 

[Tarheel1]

We’re toe’ing a fine line between Arctic intrusion and fiery furnace.

How do you think the toe falls??

 

[Tarheel1]

not at all what I was hoping for

Weeklies suck! Truly

 

[Stormdoc]

This guy is really a bad forecaster, and his indexes hold little forecasting value. I mean, I appreciate his research, but he hasn't demonstrated any reliable skill yet as it relates to winter forecasting. Same with BAM. They're both fairly useless.

Yeah I read his article, at least he is humble and states we are in a position with this SSWE that is uncharted, so it makes any predictions low confidence. He shows a graph of the CFS for February, and as we know that is always a “low confidence forecast” LoL. As others have stated, long range forecasting remains a fools errand.

 

[cd2play]

Yeah I read his article, at least he is humble and states we are in a position with this SSWE that is uncharted, so it makes any predictions low confidence. He shows a graph of the CFS for February, and as we know that is always a “low confidence forecast” LoL. As others have stated, long range forecasting remains a fools errand.

True... Really, for all we or anyone knows, it could go the 1993 route and be a nothingburger through the whole winter then score in March. In fact, this winter has some striking similarities to 1992-93 so far, lots of seasonal, meh temperatures.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON starting off the night right

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

ICON starting off the night right View attachment 66489

That low pressure west is really getting squished though