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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

March 2018 all over again if the TWC 10 day pans out . Atlanta finishes the month 2-4 degrees above average , Charlotte finishes out 2 degrees above average , and we finish out 2 degrees below average . If it’s like March 2018 though it’s closer to 4 below ... nasty cold wind from the Atlantic Ocean that’s it. Not even proper continental air !
 
This is a possible good target right here, if we shuffle everything to the max with what we’re working with. we’re gonna deal with a dump on the east side of the Aleutian ridge, but a tilt like that in the PAC is ideal to sorta effectively pump the W US ridge 9F96861A-C645-4E3F-B82F-678E00F616BC.png
 
SD said:
Apparently so
Click to expand...
Webber from last January....
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
View attachment 30307

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

View attachment 30312



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
 
Things are never as good or as bad as it appears on models. Especially with as much fluctuations we are seeing. The difference between the SER and torch and a central/western ridge and we freeze is wire thin. One thing I am noticing is I think people along and east of the apps are in the best position for something wintry whether it be snow or ice.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Webber from last January....
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
View attachment 30307

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

View attachment 30312



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
Click to expand...
We will see if just a handful of days in P7 would be enough. Would be interesting to see how P7 treats us in Feb
 
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