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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SnowNiner said:
No matter what the Atlantic looks like, I never ever want to see a western trough, especially a constant one. I was hanging in there when it looked like the EPO could be negative enough to bleed east with the cold. When we lost that though, its just over. Negative PNA and positive EPO is just lights out for us.

Hopefully we can get the mjo to go through the favorable phases in February to give us a chance to get the pacific right. But I'm prepararing myself to be shut out again this year.
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Unless those blue colors are over the SE, it's going to be hard to get a big winter storm here. When I see blue colors running west to east up north or just out into the Atlantic, that tells me we have some work to do. Not saying that northern areas can't eek out some mixed precip, but many of us are going to need those pretty blues over the southern tier and southeast.
 
Rain Cold said:
Unless those blue colors are over the SE, it's going to be hard to get a big winter storm here. When I see blue colors running west to east up north or just out into the Atlantic, that tells me we have some work to do. Not saying that northern areas can't eek out some mixed precip, but many of us are going to need those pretty blues over the southern tier and southeast.
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That BAM video laid out a pretty good case as to why things are the way they are, despite what both the EPS and GFS have been telling us. Seems to be all about the MJO which made me wonder earlier this month since we were never seeing any approach towards the favorable phases (7,8,1,2) I read in other places this was not a worry as moves to the CoD made it more or less a non-factor.

As always though I continue to learn here but from what BAM is forecasting the message seems to be 'it is always about the MJO' In terms of snow chances in the SE---like mama if it ain't happy nothing else in the weather household really matters regardless of all the other positive events.
 
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CaryWx said:
That BAM video laid out a pretty good case as to why things are the way they are, despite what both the EPS and GFS have been telling us. Seems to be all about the MJO which made me wonder earlier this month since we were never seeing any approach towards the favorable phases (7,8,1,2) I read in other places this was not a worry as moves to the CoD made it more or less a non-factor.

As always though I continue to learn here but from what BAM is forecasting the message seems to be 'it is always about the MJO' In terms of snow chances in the SE---like mama if it ain't happy nothing else in the weather household really matters regardless of all the other positive events.
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Yeah it's why I mentioned the MJO the other day. It matters. But it's never as simple as boiling it down to one index or variable. I don't know if that's what they're doing, as I didn't read their stuff. But amplitude matters, time of year matters, other features matter, background state matters, etc. The bottom line is, it looks more likely that were going to have to wait well into February instead of getting that favorable end of January pattern. Hopefully, it will change.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it's why I mentioned the MJO the other day. It matters. But it's never as simple as boiling it down to one index or variable. I don't know if that's what they're doing, as I didn't read their stuff. But amplitude matters, time of year matters, other features matter, background state matters, etc. The bottom line is, it looks more likely that were going to have to wait well into February instead of getting that favorable end of January pattern. Hopefully, it will change.
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Yep I knew it would turn its ugly hesd around just to screw up our nice pattern... luckily at least most likely it’ll spin into the colder phases after 7 and by then we will be somewhere in February so not a bad time frame to look at for an actual positive cold outlook ... but here we go again kicking the ? down the road
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it's why I mentioned the MJO the other day. It matters. But it's never as simple as boiling it down to one index or variable. I don't know if that's what they're doing, as I didn't read their stuff. But amplitude matters, time of year matters, other features matter, background state matters, etc. The bottom line is, it looks more likely that were going to have to wait well into February instead of getting that favorable end of January pattern. Hopefully, it will change.
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Not one or two factors are always important though. I still say it is a crap shoot most of the time. Early Feb, 2020, we were in Phase 5 MJO (warmest on average phase for early Feb) with an AO index approaching a record, +6 which resulted in the following:

1610993047422.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it's why I mentioned the MJO the other day. It matters. But it's never as simple as boiling it down to one index or variable. I don't know if that's what they're doing, as I didn't read their stuff. But amplitude matters, time of year matters, other features matter, background state matters, etc. The bottom line is, it looks more likely that were going to have to wait well into February instead of getting that favorable end of January pattern. Hopefully, it will change.
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We’re gonna flip to another legit pattern, problem is, that could be mid February, late February, March or even early April, lol, at least we start getting shorter wavelengths on our side which can benefit us in uglier patterns
 
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