Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, this isn't going the way we want...I had high hopes for last week of Jan. Maybe Feb will be great.
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Great if you’re a golfer like me! ️

 

[Webberweather53]

Posted this in the whamby thread but this H5 look gives me jan 1979 vibes but more ridging around AK (pretty solid ice event in CAD regions) View attachment 66225View attachment 66226

The better question is which ice storm in Jan 1979, there were quite a few haha

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The better question is which ice storm in Jan 1979, there were quite a few haha

Haha January 19th

 

[Webberweather53]

Almost done with the map for yesterday’s graupel event east of the mtns for both nc and sc. I work night shifts and usually wait til morning to see cocorahs data come in plus I still am at work atm, will have those out soon.

 

[SD]

I'm a glutton for punishment but the 27-30 period looks like it could have potential. And now watch the 12z run totally move away from this.


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Indeed

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Mr. Golf]

If HM is correct, this unfavorable Pacific has alot to do with the SSW event. Somewhere or somehow tied into it. I'm really not sure if he is correct, but he did mention it. I know yall will say I'm a debbie downer, but winter is over for us other than a few cool days moving forward. That's my opinion. SSW events are definitely overrated.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol the -EPO is becoming a suppressed GOA ridge

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol the -EPO is becoming a suppressed GOA ridge View attachment 66257View attachment 66258

People wanted to "fix" the Pacific, suppressed Aleutian ridge is literally as bad as it gets

 

[Myfrotho704_]

People wanted to "fix" the Pacific, suppressed Aleutian ridge is literally as bad as it gets

Makes me miss the +PNA/-NAO pattern, that pattern provided whether people liked it or not, I know the events were marginal but it did something at least

 

[Rain Cold]

If HM is correct, this unfavorable Pacific has alot to do with the SSW event. Somewhere or somehow tied into it. I'm really not sure if he is correct, but he did mention it. I know yall will say I'm a debbie downer, but winter is over for us other than a few cool days moving forward. That's my opinion. SSW events are definitely overrated.

HM was talking about a favorable pattern for the east not too long ago. IMO, it's fun to attempt LR forecasting and muse about how all of these complexities of the atmosphere will come together to do this or that and type all kinds of big words and industry jargon, but the fact is, we really don't have much of an idea beyond what analogs can tell us. And even that methodology is open to quite a bit of interpretation and often yields faulty conclusions.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Broken024]

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[Mr. Golf]

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Our beautiful pattern is already back

 

[BIG FROSTY]

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Totally unbelievable! The models that is....................... They have not a clue beyond a few days!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Mega fail. We lost Alaska. I knew it was a matter of time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mega fail. We lost Alaska. I know it was a matter of time.View attachment 66262

As much i Hate these trends, it’s not lost yet, still plenty of time, (for example models trending away from the -NAO only to bring it back a few days ago)still plenty of time, but very discouraging trends

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Shaggy]

As much i Hate these trends, it’s not lost yet, still plenty of time, (for example models trending away from the -NAO only to bring it back a few days ago)still plenty of time, but very discouraging trends

I've spent many winters awaiting on the promised pattern change that never arrives.