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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

mydoortotheworld said:
Do we remember the synoptic setup of Feb 8, 2020? Remember we only started seeing it like within 72 hours? I have a feeling that this’ll stay hidden until it gets into NAM’s range
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Given that last flat rain slider wave overperformed being driven by WAA, wouldn’t shock me either
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Do we remember the synoptic setup of Feb 8, 2020? Remember we only started seeing it like within 72 hours? I have a feeling that this’ll stay hidden until it gets into NAM’s range
Click to expand...
That showed up on the GFS first, then got lost, as a storm that wasn't amped, and snow only made it to Wilmington. Then the CMC came in and showed it as an NC wide even, then the NAM went crazy with the storm, and the rest is history. The Euro sucked with it, except for the two big-dog runs in the LR that got everyone's attention.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Do we remember the synoptic setup of Feb 8, 2020? Remember we only started seeing it like within 72 hours? I have a feeling that this’ll stay hidden until it gets into NAM’s range
Click to expand...

Feb 8 2020 is another classic case of over performing warm advection.

What else is new?

1610503273533.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
That showed up on the GFS first, then got lost, as a storm that wasn't amped, and snow only made it to Wilmington. Then the CMC came in and showed it as an NC wide even, then the NAM went crazy with the storm, and the rest is history. The Euro sucked with it, except for the two big-dog runs in the LR that got everyone's attention.
Click to expand...
Why was the euro so suppressed? Did it hold back/shear out ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Feb 8 2020 is another classic case of over performing warm advection.

What else is new?

View attachment 65382
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You did a good job calling BS on the Euro, and the UKMET with that system.
Webberweather53 said:
Remember that in an overrunning setup like this, precipitation, and especially precipitation rates, are going to be almost entirely driven by processes that global NWP models traditionally don't handle terribly well:

1) Low mid-level warm air advection

2) Frontogenesis

3) Isentropic upglide

For those in the western Carolinas and perhaps even NE GA, some element of cold air damming will be present which essentially acts as effective topography, creating the impression of orographic lift. This process to is often misrepresented time & time again in most NWP models, especially global models.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol damn CFS did better than the euro with that one View attachment 65390
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Picture perfect winter storm surface map. I would guess snow would be farther south and west too.

That said, I don't remember a big storm happening like that this past February.
 
Ollie Williams said:
You did a good job calling BS on the Euro, and the UKMET with that system.
Click to expand...

Thanks haha sounds like I'm beating the same dead horse over & over again, but if you see warm advection, isentropic upglide, frontogenesis, &/or CAD likely be prepared for an over-performer in terms of areal coverage & intensity of precip.
 
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