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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

By your own admission, in almost every scenario other than the extremely rare phased bomb miller A, you want a high either to the north or northwest nosing in to provide some offsetting cold and dry air during the storm. That's all either of us have been saying. Now stop this nonsense.

What nonsense? You're seriously gonna try to argue with a guy (me) who has spent the better part of the last several years analyzing thousands of individual cases for winter storms around here? Lol, please.

You actually said earlier you want northeasterly flow east of the mtns and big cold high to the north, that is literally verbatim CAD setups only, there are many other types of winter storms fyi. You also can't just willingly omit some of the biggest storms of all time and brush those aside, especially if your point was to say we need "x" to specifically get big winter storms when literally many of the biggest events don't have that.
 
If you guys want to continue the bickering and conversation about high positions and snow please start a new thread or go banter

Thanks!
Hello, this thing on? May have to share this post a few times but let's try to follow admins instructions here, please and thank you
 
Kinda goes to crap but we’re not far here either, one thing I notice is the increase in strength of the 50/50 low, (im not mad at this look at all it’s close) B9C8BBF0-8C14-4183-92C1-F693A42C80A1.png04480E7D-C8C0-436E-8F38-060300253FB8.pngDF54207B-947A-4ACF-ABBB-6D64A0C2C4E0.png1D98ABCC-4777-46B8-831A-A1B122EF2DBE.png
 
Looks like the EPS is starting to pick up on CAD in this period. Pretty much expected for -NAO/-PNA
Lol we could range from a winter storm CAD setup to a cold rain/ruined warm day and even severe weather, sounds about right with this sort of pattern, gonna probably see all those solutions pop up the next few days
 
soooo in concerns to the potential for the southern slider event next sunday into monday (1/17-1/18) - we've noticed most globals suppress the storm in various degrees (UK seems to be the closest to something big, while euro takes it to Mexico, GFS and icon sit in between-ish). is suppression what we want in this stage (130hrs out) or are we potentially dealing with something that may be too late to trend NW, and if so what factors argue for and against this?

my instinct tells me this will definitely trend back in our favor (speaking for ATL but if ATL gets snow usually AL and some of NC/SC get it too) but this is only from experience - and i know it doesn't always "come back".
 
This storm looks like a night time roller in NC too!

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Lol almost every member that delivers snow to NC is a miller B/overrunning, not surprising given this is basically the longwave pattern we’re looking at
We’re gonna probably run into ice with this sorta look as well unfortunately, maybe even severe, but that depends on SE Canada vortex F88A5DC6-0FDB-4E9F-B766-6F6FCB0687D0.png0747DD02-1E38-41DE-A5BF-7CED5C1F41E4.png
 
Goofy's 216 has a weak gulf low, down in Fla, and cold air pressing in. That's nearly as good as you can get this far out, in Ga., and something that could shape up in the remaining time. Perfect winter storms in Ga are fewer in number than the fabled dayglo unicorn, blizzards, and basket ball sized snow flakes... and I saw those in the 70's, and the bliz in the 90's, saw the perfect SnoJam snow storm close down Atl in the 80's, and several perfect sleet storms in the late 50's, early 60's, the late 70's and early 80's. And one down here in the 90's. So hope is alive....but exceedingly rare to be realized, lol. It's taken me over 70 years to get those little bits of joy. And they are so fleeting...at least sleet has staying power which makes it wonderful beyond snow, which it generally here today, gone tomorrow beauty. So whatever frozen that falls needs a cold blast behind it..part of what makes a good one so rare. Cold before, cold after, not too bitter cold during, no waa, reinforcing caa, wsw winds bringing the moisture, n or ne winds bring the caa, low in Fla. but not too deep, weak gom low to prevent the waa, and help the caa. No wonder it's so damn tropical around here...lol....too much needle threading. The most perfect sustained conditions for a winter event was also the worst, most horrific storm I was in so far. So perfecton is over rated. I'll take a two day surprise....though that horrific storm was a complete surprise...you just don't see it sit on 32 hour after hour while a strong gom low puts down inches of rain. .. thank goodness, lol.
 
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