Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

I like what I see in the Atlantic

 

[SD]

Eps mean is low 40s here on the 24th and 25th can't ask for more than -5 at +2 weeks on a mean

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eps mean is low 40s here on the 24th and 25th can't ask for more than -5 at +2 weeks on an mean

Still will be complaining

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's the 18z GEFS minus 12z GEFS z500 for days thru 9. Biggest change is much more west-based -NAO this time which means the coming -PNA will feature at best a very muted SE ridge & be filled w/ transient waves that slide east under the block instead of a big quasi-stationary trough that pumps the SE US ridge.

 

[SD]

Still will be complaining

Indeed especially since there's probably going to be a lot giving and taking away on the models as they try to resolve the locations/orientations/amplitudes of the blocking ridges

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Indeed especially since there's probably going to be a lot giving and taking away on the models as they try to resolve the locations/orientations/amplitudes of the blocking ridges

Get ready for it it’ll be relentless, impatience is running high

 

[SD]

Get ready for it it’ll be relentless, impatience is running high

I get it, don't necessarily agree with it. We've rolled into this time frame with some real clunkers but flipped later in January and had a decent winter as a whole. I would empathize more with the freakouts if it was 2/11

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I get it, don't necessarily agree with it. We've rolled into this time frame with some real clunkers but flipped later in January and had a decent winter as a whole. I would empathize more with the freakouts if it was 2/11

I’m with you on that for sure, I saw a snow with the stalest airmass possible already, and several flizzards including one on Christmas, I’d consider it a decent winter so far temp wise as well

 

[SD]

I’m with you on that for sure, I saw a snow with the stalest airmass possible already, and several flizzards including one on Christmas, I’d consider it a decent winter so far temp wise as well

If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo

Yeah exactly, and we’re not dealing with a super persistent southeast ridge, and have actual blocking (which people has complained about not having one for a long time)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Maybe another flizzard ?

 

[EmersonGA]

If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo

Agreed. I was thinking today of how much I’ve had to wear my big Carhartt coat this winter compared to last. It’s night and day and has felt winter like for the better part of 6 weeks or more.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like this. A lot, gonna be a few step backs and a few steps forward with this tho

 

[ATLwxfan]

That was not a bad GFS run & no Canada is actually cold for a majority of it and this starts in earnest when the blocking goes up in the NE Pacific

You’re right. It’s hot until D6 or so and then gets cold though never know what verifies past that point.


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[ATLwxfan]

Canada torches early, but I wouldn't characterize it as a 'good chuck'.

Fair point though no telling what comes past D7 or so.


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[Webberweather53]

You’re right. It’s hot until D6 or so and then gets cold though never know what verifies past that point.


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Yea we don’t know for sure but it’ll likely get cold for much of Canada if we see blocking in the ne pacific and Alaska

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Bring it to our side, thanks, hopefully....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Bring it to our side, thanks, hopefully....View attachment 65092View attachment 65093

That’s one way to do it I guess

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s one way to do it I guess

Yeah no doubt, really hope we take this route cleanly

 

[whatalife]

Well then...Days 11-16...

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