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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
However 
Always love a good winter time overraining event!
Hopefully the NAO can lock in a 50/50 and we get some classic CAD.
I honestly think out of the last decade here (my area at least) the best storms has been from CAD miller Bs/overrunning and a few sliders, miller As have been harder to come by, guess with the lack of blocking the last 9 years, we have it now though
i prefer a good overrunning event personally
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I actually checked the numbers on this and in DJF during -AO/-NAO/-EPO w/ neutral-negative WPO & only varying the sign PNA, there is actually no significant change in the probability of winter storms in NC. Actually, there's slightly more (~4%) winter storms in days w/ -PNA in a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/neutral-negative WPO than a +PNA coupled w/ the same AO, NAO, EPO, & WPO regime.
Thus, I'm really not bothered at all by the change in sign of the PNA here, going to a -PNA is only going to change the kinds and character of winter storms we can see, not the amount or frequency.
Love me a good ole fashioned southern slider. February 2014 was epic. I will never forget how that storm progressed. For a while, it actually looked like it would miss our area and ended up being one of my favorite storms ever. The snow stuck right away because the temps were so cold. We got warmed nosed a few times, but all that did was turn the snow into a snow/ip mix. Still ended up with 8 inches. And the best part was most of us got in on the action. Such great memories.
Hrrr might show eye candy in a few days again, lol, Christmas all over again 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When I loosen the restrictions of the indices from +/-1 sigma for significant AO/NAO/EPO to 0.5 sigma to increase sample size, the cases w/ -AO/-NAO/neutral-negative WPO/-EPO coupled to -PNA actually have ~50% more winter storms per capita in DJF than those w/ +PNA. Adding a +PNA to -AO/-NAO/-EPO/neutral to -WPO probably makes the pattern cold/dry.
That was a great week. I got 3.5 inches from the wave that came through as overpeformed the day before the big storm arrived and then another 9 of snow/sleet the following two days with the big storm. Did have some freezing rain thrown in during it, but it’s pretty rare to experience 3 straight days of more than 3 inches of daytime snowfall around here.
Love me a good ole fashioned southern slider. February 2014 was epic. I will never forget how that storm progressed. For a while, it actually looked like it would miss our area and ended up being one of my favorite storms ever. The snow stuck right away because the temps were so cold. We got warmed nosed a few times, but all that did was turn the snow into a snow/ip mix. Still ended up with 8 inches. And the best part was most of us got in on the action. Such great memories.
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That was a nail biter until the end.. CHA set up on the second wave in a glorious snow gushing deformation band to paste the night away. MRX was way late with the Winter Storm Warnings on that one.
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That was a nail biter until the end.. CHA set up on the second wave in a glorious snow gushing deformation band to paste the night away. MRX was way late with the Winter Storm Warnings on that one.
cd2play
Member
In other words, ice
ATLwxfan
Member
Ugly ugly ugly GFS run. Canada blazing for a good chunk of it. If not for the -NAO we are dealing with our tulips blooming.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No.
not just that.
December 2018, February 2014 (twice), December 2017, those are big ones that come to mind
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That was not a bad GFS run & no Canada is actually cold for a majority of it and this starts in earnest when the blocking goes up in the NE Pacific
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GEFS still hinting at the potential for overrunning for a large chunk of the I-40 corridor ~ Jan 19-20 just like it has for much of the last several days. I'd like to see the ridge over the N rockies push further NW into western Canada to force more cold/sinking air on the backside of this trough over the Lakes. That's how you get a better sfc high
Canada torches early, but I wouldn't characterize it as a 'good chuck'.
John1122
Member
Been looking back at some notable wintery periods here with the -PNA. The 2011 analog Webber posted was particularly good for my area in Tennessee. it snowed for 8 or 9 days in a row with a major overunning event on the 10th that had highs in the upper 10s and low 20s with high ratio powder. I ended up with around 15 inches of snow that month Most of it falling from about Jan 6th-14th. Also had 8 inches February 13th 2014 with the PNA at -1.1.
This don’t look bad at all
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS is also trending towards more -NAO in the medium range.
