NCCWOP9077
Member
18z EPS low positions, hoping these will correct a little further north
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
At least this potential system is unlike the last one we were all hoping to trend NW but hardly even scraped the coast. As Kylo and Mrdaddyman just showed, we mainly need an energy infusion which in this case would bring it north and heavier precip while not likely ruining the boundary layer. It also certainly does not need a 500 mile jog west like the last system with 3 days to go...
If euro is following the cmc, I could see it trending so far north it goes over the OBX.
Robert doesn’t know according to his last Facebook post today. He just says to watch it like he has said for every system this winter. Says pattern is active.
Forevertothee
Member
I'm watching an interesting, potent system for late Tuesday into Wednesday across the South. Firstly, the northern periphery of the precip shield will indeed drop precip in the form of very wet snowfall in northern Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and possibly part of Kentucky and Tennessee by Wednesday. But as Wednesday evening wears on, the models see that big confluent zone up in the Northeast states and want to kill the southern system pretty quickly as it goes through Georgia and heads toward colder, drier air in NC. However, as I mentioned in blog posts recently for the members, any southern systems in this split flow are always going to be needing to be monitored closely because many times southern sliders ramp up more than predicted, and I expected (sort of) as much going through this pattern...so with very marginal cold temps, barely supportive of any Winter precip along the northern shield of precip, its still going to be hard to pull off much of a Winter event, but the trends are definitely for a stronger, more robust, even closed off system even as the system is as far east as Alabama--and models were about killing this thing off about that time as it hits hostile flow. Systems like this with marginal 850 temps , generally far removed from a big strong cold high pressure, yet robust and compact with a few other pros and cons to list, well--- Long story short, this is worth a watch for some potential wet snow or mixed precip along the northern edges of the band of moisture. Don't go out to get bread or milk. I have a longer breakdown at the premium blog, and dissect many aspects of this system, probably to a fault--in this otherwise dull Winter so far. So members check that out.
Beyond this system, yet another system shows up, and that one is hard to nail down too for this Friday and weekend.
Pattern continues to look extremely active for as far out as I can see.
Image animation shows the north trend on moisture
If that southern wave slows down a little more, then the northern piece could catch it, then it’s game on. The 18z euro run shows them trending closer.
GFS is slowly improving behind our backs for system #2 
Is this a good or bad thing Chris? Trending closer?
My goodness, so close to glory to add to that post 
Maybe a little hail tomorrow from upstate SC to Raleigh NC. HRRR and NAM showing some storms that quickly push East to the coast.
Rate dependent, that's a classic isothermal SN sounding, solid saturation in the dendritic growth zone.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah this is how it happens its, these type of things are poorly modeled until 2-4 days out usually.... this is why nit picking and fretting over every single model run is maddening......the chances the models have these little waves and cold air timing right is low, if this pans out quite a bit of NC could ends up getting a pretty decent little event out of it
He goes more in depth on his site he said
Good catch, yeah graupel is possible with shallow cape/steep 0-3km lapse rates and low freezing levels, gusty winds to with cool season inverted Vs and decent DCAPE for this time of year
He's watching it close, all depends (if) UL can remain closed! He said if that upper lobe can remain closed off in Georgia instead of Alabama, he thinks Western Carolinas will have the possibility of a 6 hour window of snow.
RNK is a NOGO!
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid
40s. Lows around 30.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper
40s. Lows in the upper 20s.
RNK is a NOGO!
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid
40s. Lows around 30.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper
40s. Lows in the upper 20s.
From early looks, the Nam looks better. Notice that little opening over Montana. That needs to trend stronger.
3 run trend
3 run trend
Looks better and a bit more amped 
NAM does look a little better, focusing on SE MT and W ND/SD, ideally that entry point needs to be Glacier National Park. This is not a central Plains dive, SW MO, NW AR would make things interesting vs the current Tri-state track.