Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Storm5]

Incoming third wave day 11 /12


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[GeorgiaGirl]

Good luck trying to figure this one out:



The "third" period of interest just has 3 waves close to each other, it's not squashed, it's chaotic.

 

[Storm5]

Literally three waves this run next Tuesday through Sunday all holding potential


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[packfan98]

264. Maybe a mixed bag in NC. Colder than 6z, but still not cold enough. Tracking specifics with so much happening before hand is pretty futile, but I want to see a big operational run!

 

[Metwannabe]

Good trends here with our first trough. Notice ridge pushing west. Allowing the low pressure to come our way.

View attachment 30823View attachment 30824

That is easily getting within the NW correctable range...

 

[LovingGulfLows]

So many waves/threats in a small period of time. I'm sure two of them will congeal into one as we get closer.

 

[Metwannabe]

264. Maybe a mixed bag in NC. Colder than 6z, but still not cold enough. Tracking specifics with so much happening before hand is pretty futile, but I want to see a big operational run!

Too much energy, GFS can't figure out which LP will be dominant.... had it right where we wanted it in C. Fl but then another LP forms along the NC coast. Cold air is close by and energy everywhere, we score with one of these no doubt

 

[Bryce Shelton]

Hoping that the 12Z GEFS Ensembles will paint us a pretty picture across the south, and especially South Carolina

 

[KyloG]

Isn't that trough too far east? I'd think we need a more w/sw h5 flow to get our moisture to come out of the gulf.

If the upper low over the NE would lift out a little it would alter that and allow any wave traveling the south to amplify possibly.

 

[Metwannabe]

Don't sleep on that Low off the SE coast. It's been trending closer with a much better trough axis. This is the first chance that some of the ensembles have been keying on.
View attachment 30825

I like the trough axis better on the GEFS, could be some money members this run

 

[Meteorologist1999]

That is easily getting within the NW correctable range...

Once the NW trend occurs watch out Carolinas?

 

[Ethan80963]

GEFS still has a majority of members showing snow/ice for CAD areas this Saturday.

 

[Mitch West]

That's a mean looking trough draping directly over the SE funneling in some cold air. So many factors to work out to get that moisture out the gulf to amplify.

 

[deltadog03]

Another nice wave forming at 231. I have a difficult time believing that all of these nice waves in Texas are going to get squashed as much as the GFS is showing considering the 500mb setup.

Agreed.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

GEFS is still suppressed but it gives the first wave a bit more of a shot...looked like to me only 4-5 members that didn't try.

 

[Stormlover]

Should a thread be started soon?

There are snow amounts for invidivual states(widespread amounts of 4-10 inches occured in Northern GA).

Here's a satellite view of the areas that had snowcover on January 11th, 2011.

I'm not saying this storm will be exactly like that one...it just reminds me of this storm.

I had almost 11 inches just nw of Huntsville, including 4 inches in 1 hour..it was awesome

 

[tennessee storm]

12zgfs has a active southern jet... question can we get some quality cold air to meet up with one these waves ... just not sure till the mjo progresses more

 

[accu35]

Wow!! More members showing up on the first wave for deep southeast

 

[Metwannabe]

Several members are closer to a nice coastal ( a few bombs) around D6-7, the one @packfan98 and @Fountainguy97 were mentioning. It's not there yet but dang close and I'll take it at this range

 

[accu35]

Wave 1