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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

olhausen link said:
Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.

63f0d9de1f02c06337b12c094fef3347.png



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Click to expand...
North central TN will be in that colder sector and no WAA, not like northeastern GA, upstate SC and into NC...more snow/sleet there for north  central TN more than ZR. Also, keep in mind,  don't set in snowfall maps...snowfall maps give you an idea of the placement of snow more accurately than amounts this early in time.

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Really think the SER will not be an issue as we head towards late next week as some op runs showed today. According to the models, we were supposed to have a ridge now, but as we all see the trough won out this week here in the southeast. Just something to ponder. Thinking there is a decent chance of I-20 northward having some type of wintry event in the next 7-11 days as it will end up colder than what the GFS and EURO op run a are showing. Follow the ensemble mean for now.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4610#msg4610 date=1483063991]
18Z DGEX clown map.
eta.totsnow192.gif
Click to expand...

Shift that swath a good 50 miles SE and I'm a VERY happy camper.
[/quote]

I would take that total and be done for the year!! Lol
 
Joshuamurraywx link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4613#msg4613 date=1483064862]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4610#msg4610 date=1483063991]
18Z DGEX clown map.
eta.totsnow192.gif
Click to expand...

Shift that swath a good 50 miles SE and I'm a VERY happy camper.
[/quote]

I would take that total and be done for the year!! Lol
[/quote]

I would be extremely happy to be in your location for these upcoming days. Seems the further NW you are, the better you will fare.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=Joshuamurraywx link=topic=60.msg4614#msg4614 date=1483065051]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4613#msg4613 date=1483064862]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4610#msg4610 date=1483063991]
18Z DGEX clown map.
eta.totsnow192.gif
Click to expand...

Shift that swath a good 50 miles SE and I'm a VERY happy camper.
[/quote]

I would take that total and be done for the year!! Lol
[/quote]

I would be extremely happy to be in your location for these upcoming days. Seems the further NW you are, the better you will fare.
[/quote]
Seemed that way in the January 2014 storm, with our area getting 2", and about 15 miles NW getting over half a foot.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4615#msg4615 date=1483065229]
[quote author=Joshuamurraywx link=topic=60.msg4614#msg4614 date=1483065051]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4613#msg4613 date=1483064862]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4610#msg4610 date=1483063991]

Seemed that way in the January 2014 storm, with our area getting 2", and about 15 miles NW getting over half a foot.
Click to expand...

That also happened on February 25, 2015 (coincidentally on my 31st birthday). I think I ended up with just under an inch but just NW of here in north Cherokee got half a foot or more. That was a real bummer.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4617#msg4617 date=1483065338]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4615#msg4615 date=1483065229]
[quote author=Joshuamurraywx link=topic=60.msg4614#msg4614 date=1483065051]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=60.msg4613#msg4613 date=1483064862]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=60.msg4610#msg4610 date=1483063991]

Seemed that way in the January 2014 storm, with our area getting 2", and about 15 miles NW getting over half a foot.
Click to expand...
That also happened on February 25, 2015 (coincidentally on my 31st birthday). I think I ended up with just under an inch but just NW of here in north Cherokee got half a foot or more. That was a real bummer.
[/quote]
I just realized that the Feb 2015 storm was the one I was talking about. lol
 
The DGEX isn't one of the most reliable models but it's good to see that it has an idea close to what we want to see. There's likely mixing issues though.

Once in a blue moon, it comes close to being right and I think one time I remember where it came close was February 2015.

And this isn't the end of the storm most likely.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=60.msg4621#msg4621 date=1483066081]
Holy smokes
610temp.new.gif
Click to expand...
Now THAT is cold.
[/quote] That is incredible!  Might be the most blue I have ever seen on those.
 
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