Pattern January 2017 Discussion

[Stormlover]

From Huntsville NWS discussion:
If the front remains across central Alabama, as
models hint at now, we may have some significant winter weather
developing Thursday into Friday.

 

[SnowHusky]

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4537#msg4537 date=1483051783]
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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too fast ? that run was much slower with the energy

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[/quote]
I'm not focused on the exact model timing, I'm focusing on the similarities of the placement of energy.

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[Brick Tamland]

Even if it is a mix of snow and ice, this would still be a pretty good storm. And it's close to being something bigger.

 

[Webberweather53]

Some of you will probably find this site useful... Depicts various model biases in the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and GFS thru 168 HR
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=cg2916 link=topic=60.msg4539#msg4539 date=1483051944]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4537#msg4537 date=1483051783]
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.

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[/quote]
we must be looking at different gfs runs . cause the 18z gfs was much slower with that energy.

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[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4542#msg4542 date=1483052458]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4537#msg4537 date=1483051783]
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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too fast ? that run was much slower with the energy

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[/quote]
I'm not focused on the exact model timing, I'm focusing on the similarities of the placement of energy.

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[/quote]
timing is everything with a transient block

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[CummingWx]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4527#msg4527 date=1483051059]
this run will crush the MA

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18Z GFS: Major ZR in main CAD resions of NE GA/SC/NC 1/7
[/quote]

Larry, does the ice come down to Cumming or is it mainly extreme NE GA?

 

[Storm5]

77 guests please go register . come next week if we have a legit threat we are going to have to change a few settings to handle traffic and if your a guest you won't be able to read the thread. so please register so you won't miss anything . takes 30 seconds

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[SnowHusky]

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4546#msg4546 date=1483052890]
[quote author=cg2916 link=topic=60.msg4539#msg4539 date=1483051944]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4537#msg4537 date=1483051783]
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.

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[/quote]
we must be looking at different gfs runs . cause the 18z gfs was much slower with that energy.

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[/quote]
12z Euro is faster and 18z GFS is slower. 12z Euro has moisture pushing out by 228 while the 18z GFS has freezing rain still going on in NC at hr 228. The 12z Euro is slower with that piece of energy that I'm talking about but it catches up at 174-180.

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[Storm5]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
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[Metwannabe]

Still a long ways to go but I don't like how ice is becoming more of a possibility... again this would be crippling

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[accu35]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
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so don't bother looking?

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4556#msg4556 date=1483054502]
yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
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so don't bother looking?
[/quote]
it's not horrible but it's got too many solutions I don't like . just being picky

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[accu35]

[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4558#msg4558 date=1483054862]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4556#msg4556 date=1483054502]
yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
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so don't bother looking?
[/quote]
it's not horrible but it's got too many solutions I don't like . just being picky

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[/quote] well if you don't mind can you post map

 

[SnowHusky]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

Well, that 18z GFS run was good IMO. Someone posted, stating that, the NWS office out of AL said that a major winter event could be setting up if that boundary front hangs there. I agree, and that's what I mentioned before. Things will start to get interesting for sure. We've seen enough consistand  runs showing that the southeastern states will get winter weather during the 5th-7th time period and possibly into the 8th.

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[MichaelJ]

Looking at the ensemble individual members, looks likely to be a miss wide left to me.

 

[accu35]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

Well, that 18z GFS run was good IMO. Someone posted, stating that, the NWS office out of AL said that a major winter event could be setting up if that boundary front hangs there. I agree, and that's what I mentioned before. Things will start to get interesting for sure. We've seen enough constant runs showing that the southeastern states will get winter weather during the 5th-7th time period and possibly into the 8th.

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I agree 100%. This is a ongoing model to model threat. We are very close to something to a major event. Just need a tad colder. And be truful I still think GFS is underestimating the cold

 

[olhausen]

January 2017 Discussion

Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.

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[RollTide18]

One thing is for sure, my eyes will be glues to the 00z runs.

 

[Metwannabe]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.

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I posted a pic a few post back from pivotal weather showing ice accrual.  Pivotal is good site for that

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