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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Another suppressed look wouldn't necessarily be bad to me.

But if it goes from warm/cutter to suppressed, that's really confusing.
 
Storm5 link said:
this run will crush the MA

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18Z GFS: Major ZR in main CAD resions of NE GA/SC/NC 1/7
 
just another possible solution. we have seen everything today




except what we want

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WeatherDawg87 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg4510#msg4510 date=1483050254]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg4499#msg4499 date=1483048626]
GFS para= $ !! Suppression city!! Moisture very far south! Looks like it wants to pop a low in the gulf, very cold in the 7-10th timeframe, and super-cold at Canada border, at the end!
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Mack,
The 12Z para-GFS gives Waycross some kind of wintry precip. a week from tonight (1/5-6)! Imagine the meltdown here if that were to somehow occur and if not much falls further north.
[/quote]

I'm probably the only person on here that would be in favor of such a thing. Does it show all of South Georgia getting something frozen falling from the sky?
[/quote]

No, just far SE GA in a band east of a line from Waycross northeastward to SAV. All of the way to the coast. Light amounts of mainly under 0.10" liquid equiv.
 
Really this far oit, do we honestly think we will have weenie runs every run?
 
As I said last night, us in the CAD areas better hope its cold enough or we could end up with a bad ice storm. This run is all over that solution.
 
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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Still lots of different scenarios with each model, and even from run to run with the same model. No real consistency yet.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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About when would we want the energy to kick out?
 
This run is so close to many more, it has my attention. I watched the full completion of the second wave and it actually look good. Just a few degrees colder then Boom. There's alot of energy and plenty of cold just need timing. I bet the gefs will look better than the OP
 
accu35 link said:
This run is so close to many more, it has my attention. I watched the full completion of the second wave and it actually look good. Just a few degrees colder then Boom. There's alot of energy and plenty of cold just need timing. I bet the gefs will look better than the OP
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get ready because the OZ tonight will be a sexy beast
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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too fast ? that run was much slower with the energy

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I like the slower evolution of the 18z gfs gives more time for the cold to move in. need to watch the SER and the placement of the block . but I'd take that slower look

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Storm5 link said:
I like the slower evolution of the 18z gfs gives more time for the cold to move in. need to watch the SER and the placement of the block . but I'd take that slower look

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Yep, you're right, that's the main reason why the Euro operational was less favorable for much of the SE US... The faster the shortwave energy kicks out, the less time the cold air will have to build in & hence the frontal wave will form and ride along the arctic front further North & west. We still have a very loonng ways to go
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

cg2916 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4537#msg4537 date=1483051783]
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.

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About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.

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