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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

SD link said:
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
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Yeah, it gets too much snow up towards the Ohio valley area and not looking as flat/suppressed! GEM, is kind of on board. One wave Fri/Sat, some frozen on N/W side.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4247#msg4247 date=1483021112]
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
Click to expand...
Yeah, it gets too much snow up towards the Ohio valley area and not looking as flat/suppressed! GEM, is kind of on board. One wave Fri/Sat, some frozen on N/W side.
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I havent looked at much on the Euro other than the precip maps. I am guessing its not as strong with the lead wave in the northern stream so it allows this system to sneak northward. I will actually take my chances on this coming back south a bit...
 
The Euro brings the precip farther north than the 06z GFS. Seems like the 06z GFS is trying to suppress the moisture. We should have more and more model agreement here on out. It's becoming into the 5-7 day window.

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Great to see the threat still showing up. The potential is still there. Just have to work out the details now the next week.
 
Being in the northern upstate, I would take that dgex look and call it a winter. That's about as perfect a track as one could get for the Carolinas.
 
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I havent looked at much on the Euro other than the precip maps. I am guessing its not as strong with the lead wave in the northern stream so it allows this system to sneak northward. I will actually take my chances on this coming back south a bit...
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I don't think that is much of stretch, with the blocking depicted it very well could trend a little south IMO
 
I'm down w/ the 06z para
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12z GFS will be starting to come out...might want to hang on to your chair tightly cause the 12z GFS may be the best run yet. We'll see, I'm already feeling the rush lol.

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SD link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg4240#msg4240 date=1483019496]
OTD in 1997, a large early-season winter storm during the 1997-98 super NINO winter smacked the western piedmont and mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall totals in excess of 6" were commonplace from the Triad area & points northwestward, with up to 1-1.5 feet of snow reported in the higher elevations of the mountains.
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Oooo I remember this one for some reason. Flipped to snow for like an hour and it coated everything...then it was gone
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Interesting... As usual, Fayetteville got jipped...  :'(
 
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
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that should be the early week cutter

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg4266#msg4266 date=1483026919]
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
Click to expand...
that should be the early week cutter

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[/quote]
Yeah, your right! I'm a little overly excited! Hopefully it's a powerhouse, and brings the cold!!
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4247#msg4247 date=1483021112]
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
Click to expand...
nothing wrong with a sleet fest

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  Yes, indeed!!!  Lets you know it's falling, and sticks around for a good long while :) Give me 6 inches of sleet any day.  T
 
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