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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

ATLWxFan link said:
Pattern is cold and active. The goods are inevitable


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Click to expand...
Everyone that was wishing for a cold pattern should get their New Year's wishes granted. Also, there appears to be some chances for wintry fun. Should be a good couple of weeks. Hang on for the ride...
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

The gfs is somewhat exciting even in the face of a warm up and meh pattern

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Regarding the MJO, the bad news is that the EPS' prediction from last week of left side within circle starting about now is failing as it is moving more down the circle than to the left side. (The GEFS missed it even worse as it at one point had it going well outside the circle into phases 8 and 1. The EPS is usually more accurate than the GEFS and just about any other model. That's why I focus on the EPS). While still not in a warm dominated position and sometimes cold dominated even where it is, it isn't in the strongest cold dominated position further left in the circle.

The good news is that the 14-15 day EPS forecast fwiw is in a favorable position in phase 7 near the circle and rotating toward low amp (near circle) phases 1 and 8:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
GaWx link said:
Regarding the MJO, the bad news is that the EPS' prediction from last week of left side within circle starting about now is failing as it is moving more down the circle than to the left side. (The GEFS missed it even worse as it at one point had it going well outside the circle into phases 8 and 1. The EPS is usually more accurate than the GEFS and just about any other model. That's why I focus on the EPS). While still not in a warm dominated position and sometimes cold dominated even where it is, it isn't in the strongest cold dominated position further left in the circle.

The good news is that the 14-15 day EPS forecast fwiw is in a favorable position in phase 7 near the circle and rotating toward low amp (near circle) phases 1 and 8:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Click to expand...
That's not a bad mjo progression but certainly would favor a period of warmth for week 2 of Jan

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SD link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg6157#msg6157 date=1483292517]
Regarding the MJO, the bad news is that the EPS' prediction from last week of left side within circle starting about now is failing as it is moving more down the circle than to the left side. (The GEFS missed it even worse as it at one point had it going well outside the circle into phases 8 and 1. The EPS is usually more accurate than the GEFS and just about any other model. That's why I focus on the EPS). While still not in a warm dominated position and sometimes cold dominated even where it is, it isn't in the strongest cold dominated position further left in the circle.

The good news is that the 14-15 day EPS forecast fwiw is in a favorable position in phase 7 near the circle and rotating toward low amp (near circle) phases 1 and 8:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Click to expand...
That's not a bad mjo progression but certainly would favor a period of warmth for week 2 of Jan

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[/quote]

Shane and others,
Wow, I just noticed the GEFS based AO forecast (which isn't a bad thing to look at accuracywise). It has the AO dropping sharply to a solidly negative level around mid January!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

IF that should verify and IF the latest EPS MJO forecast for mid January, which is about as favorable as that gets, were to also verify, we could very well be looking at a very cold period starting in about two weeks following what appears to be a mild week preceding it. It is hard to beat the combo of a very favorable MJO and a very favorable AO. Just something to keep in mind. So, even if the 1/6-9 threat doesn't work out (and frankly we all know it could easily not work out), the best threat of the month may still lie ahead. We have a very long way to go just for this month, alone. I wouldn't overly worry about whether or not 1/6-9 works out, folks.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg6168#msg6168 date=1483293304]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg6157#msg6157 date=1483292517]
Regarding the MJO, the bad news is that the EPS' prediction from last week of left side within circle starting about now is failing as it is moving more down the circle than to the left side. (The GEFS missed it even worse as it at one point had it going well outside the circle into phases 8 and 1. The EPS is usually more accurate than the GEFS and just about any other model. That's why I focus on the EPS). While still not in a warm dominated position and sometimes cold dominated even where it is, it isn't in the strongest cold dominated position further left in the circle.

The good news is that the 14-15 day EPS forecast fwiw is in a favorable position in phase 7 near the circle and rotating toward low amp (near circle) phases 1 and 8:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Click to expand...
That's not a bad mjo progression but certainly would favor a period of warmth for week 2 of Jan

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Shane and others,
Wow, I just noticed the GEFS based AO forecast (which isn't a bad thing to look at accuracywise). It has the AO dropping sharply to a solidly negative level around mid January!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

IF that should verify and IF the latest EPS MJO forecast for mid January, which is about as favorable as that gets, were to also verify, we could very well be looking at a very cold period starting in about two weeks following what appears to be a mild week preceding it. Just something to keep in mind. So, even if the 1/6-9 threat doesn't work out (and frankly we all know it could easily not work out), the best threat of the month may still lie ahead. We have a very long way to go just for this month, alone. I wouldn't overly worry about whether or not 1/6-9 works out, folks.
[/quote]
I am a big fan of the post 1/15 pattern I think it starts warm but we go real cold at some point and the  nao gets in play.  I may bust with this idea but I think it's there

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I hope the storm this week materializes the wheels really come off the pattern in about 10 days

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SoutheastRidge link said:
So basically our entire winter MAY come down to this weekend.
Click to expand...
I doubt it.  Just sucks to warm in mid winter

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SD link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=60.msg7194#msg7194 date=1483378944]
So basically our entire winter MAY come down to this weekend.
Click to expand...
I doubt it.  Just sucks to warm in mid winter

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[/quote]
Doesn't it usually do that after a big storm anyway, following the bitter cold? Plus, I think we would be reloaded by the end of January again for another potential.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg7197#msg7197 date=1483379160]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=60.msg7194#msg7194 date=1483378944]
So basically our entire winter MAY come down to this weekend.
Click to expand...
I doubt it.  Just sucks to warm in mid winter

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[/quote]
Doesn't it usually do that after a big storm anyway, following the bitter cold? Plus, I think we would be reloaded by the end of January again for another potential.
[/quote]
Yep for the most part we see a lot of our good snows as the pattern is starting to breakdown a bit.

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Oh man this is a beautiful map! I just got done reading 25 pages to catch up on these exciting snow developments for most of the board. This has truly been one of the most fun storms to track in years. I just want to say thank you to SD, Storm5 and all others who made this site possible after T.W went down. Here's to a a giant snow for all off us on the board.

efc3265f9acdd03b6ec3bcb6a2cefe2e.png



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RE: January 2017 Discussion

Weeklies say adieu to winter. Weeks 3 and 4 are an all out epic torch. Score this week or see you in 2018
 
RE: January 2017 Discussion

Prestige Worldwide said:
Weeklies say adieu to winter. Weeks 3 and 4 are an all out epic torch. Score this week or see you in 2018
Click to expand...
That bad huh. Love it

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RE: January 2017 Discussion

The weeklies are saw are actually the best we have seen in quiet sometime. Looks great going into Week 3 & on. Weeklies you have to look at pattern. Weeklies have never matched pattern with temps. A flaw with the weeklies. An Eastern trough will not be a torch. By Week 4 no SER with trough in east.
 
RE: January 2017 Discussion

Today's update of both the EPS MJO and GEFS AO forecasts is still favorable for around 1/15+. Whereas the model consensus still isn't showing it, this combo of very good AO and MJO hopefully will turn out to mean that the models will have turned out to be clueless like they were about two weeks before the cold for late this week into early next week.

AO forecast (GEFS): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

MJO forecast (EPS): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
 
RE: January 2017 Discussion

GaWx said:
Today's update of both the EPS MJO and GEFS AO forecasts is still favorable for around 1/15+. Whereas the model consensus still isn't showing it, this combo of very good AO and MJO hopefully will turn out to mean that the models will have turned out to be clueless like they were about two weeks before the cold for late this week into early next week.

AO forecast (GEFS): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

MJO forecast (EPS): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
Click to expand...


 The above post still is relevant because both the MJO and the AO are still modeled to go quite favorable around or just after mid month. I'm still waiting on the models to show that, however.
 
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