Stormsfury
Member
12z 01/07/24 NAM 3KM run. LOADED GUN SOUNDING as discrete cells develop in the Tri County region of SC, followed by moistening column primed for the main QLCS... Unreal sounding for this area..
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,655
- Reaction score
- 10,792
Just curious to what it shows for Alabama?
tractor girl
Member
Alabama is kind of big with areas to the north and areas to the south. What part are you asking about? Not even trying to be a smart a here, just don't know what area you are looking at. Areas to the south appear to be more in the line of fire.
Stormsfury, do you mean loaded from a tornado perspective or severe weather in general. Or I guess it could be both. Regardless, it sounds like Tuesday will be an interesting day around here.
Even in areas that don’t see severe storms, this looks to be a high impact system. GSP is now forecasting 2-3” of rainfall during the day on Tuesday with wind gusts up to 50mph during the day and 44mph Tuesday night.
NCSNOW
Member
As if 2-4 of rain with 40 to 50 gust Tuesday isnt enough. Like clockwork,Friday we do all over again. Less svre probably, but 30 to 40 gust and another 2-4 rain. Banks are full around here, so flooding is coming this week
JHS
Member
I think what we see in the GSP area will be lots of severe thunderstorm warnings even if little lightning is occurring. My take is that they do not think gradient winds alone will reach warning criteria outside of where the watch is now, but that can change of course. Most areas east of the mountains will probably get 60+ gusts, but only as that last line comes through. This is still going to be high impact through with 2-4 inches of rain along with the wind. Lots of trees will come down and some of us will probably spend a couple of days in the dark. If the NAM is right many of us will have a slightly higher severe threat with a little more time for temps to rise before the line comes.
JHS
Member
I noticed while walking the dog just how wet things are around here now. If the 2nd system drops the kind of rain its looking like it might, we may have a Feb 6 2020 repeat as far as flooding goes in the Carolinas.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,655
- Reaction score
- 10,792
South west Al
Stormsfury
Member
All modes in play. With discrete cells out ahead with rapid spin ups and with the QLCS with potential widespread damaging winds, and even spin ups on the line are possible.
I actually wonder if the models continue to show these winds if they might pull the trigger on a High Wind Warning outside the mountains just because of the potential impact of heavy rains and the high winds. Working in management for Food Lion, we are already communicating to stores to be prepared for power outages on Tuesday and to be ready to cover open cooler cases and have outside refrigeration trucks lined up if needed.
JHS
Member
That's a very fair point. They may very well do that sometime tomorrow if the models do not change course. The ground is already wet and another 2-4 inches of rain is going make things that much worse.
Shaggy
Member
Wilmington NWS referencing the WRF al lot.
The real show comes Tuesday at which time the kinematic response to
the storm to our west spread eastward. Wind fields begin to
strengthen dramatically beginning right at 12Z and the late morning
hours will become increasingly breezy. Some timing uncertainty
remains, but a Wind Advisory will be needed by some point, seemingly
around midday, possibly for coastal areas but also could see area-
wide. All the while showers increase in intensity, becoming
increasingly able to mix down gusts since 925mb winds (a mere 2000ft
high) increase to 50-60kt in the 12Z-18Z time frame, with a slight
further strengthening thereafter. The main and most disconcerting
change in guidance today is that they are starting to favor the
development of instability. Even the more meager values shown in the
GFS (which for now seem plausible given the all day nature of the
rain and the weakest sun angle of the year) but its forecast
soundings still support storm rotation. The WRF soundings on the
other hand are unsettling in their display of 1000 (ish) J/Kg of
CAPE and hodographs supportive of strong tornadoes with even the 0-1
km shear values just about off the charts. As temperatures surge to
near 70 and dewpoints into the low/mid 60s some of the stronger
ideas of the WRF could end up verifying. The WRF also has the most
impressive fall/rise pressure couplet along the front that I`ve seen
in some time, which will aid low level ascent considerably. The GFS
has a similar but weaker presentation of the same but seems to be
too muted with the strength of the post-frontal CAA given the
strength of the wind field driving the boundary. Regardless of
whether or not the tornado threat pans out it seems quite likely
that the arrival of the cold front will mix down damaging winds with
a line of storms that may be largely bereft of lightning...something
that will likely be handled with short-fused convective warnings.
The real show comes Tuesday at which time the kinematic response to
the storm to our west spread eastward. Wind fields begin to
strengthen dramatically beginning right at 12Z and the late morning
hours will become increasingly breezy. Some timing uncertainty
remains, but a Wind Advisory will be needed by some point, seemingly
around midday, possibly for coastal areas but also could see area-
wide. All the while showers increase in intensity, becoming
increasingly able to mix down gusts since 925mb winds (a mere 2000ft
high) increase to 50-60kt in the 12Z-18Z time frame, with a slight
further strengthening thereafter. The main and most disconcerting
change in guidance today is that they are starting to favor the
development of instability. Even the more meager values shown in the
GFS (which for now seem plausible given the all day nature of the
rain and the weakest sun angle of the year) but its forecast
soundings still support storm rotation. The WRF soundings on the
other hand are unsettling in their display of 1000 (ish) J/Kg of
CAPE and hodographs supportive of strong tornadoes with even the 0-1
km shear values just about off the charts. As temperatures surge to
near 70 and dewpoints into the low/mid 60s some of the stronger
ideas of the WRF could end up verifying. The WRF also has the most
impressive fall/rise pressure couplet along the front that I`ve seen
in some time, which will aid low level ascent considerably. The GFS
has a similar but weaker presentation of the same but seems to be
too muted with the strength of the post-frontal CAA given the
strength of the wind field driving the boundary. Regardless of
whether or not the tornado threat pans out it seems quite likely
that the arrival of the cold front will mix down damaging winds with
a line of storms that may be largely bereft of lightning...something
that will likely be handled with short-fused convective warnings.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Sheeeeesh ? Jason Simpson just posted this in a recent update.
Windergawx
Member
NWS saying 35mph gust here any thoughts... guessing but I say 40 lets go for broke
gawxnative
Member
Gradient (non thunderstorm) could be higher, maybe up to 50 ish.. IF we get any convection to mix it down any then all bets are off,
Windergawx
Member
will be fun to watch to say the least
Makeitsnow
Member
The 4km showing one of the more extreme wedge protection shields I can recall seeing over the upstate and north ga. For athens for example,
Code:
SFC 975 187 17.3 16.1 93 1.2 16.5 155 21 292.6 294.7 290.6 326.3 11.87
2 950 408 15.8 15.6 99 0.1 15.7 159 41 293.2 295.3 290.9 327.0 11.84
3 900 866 13.6 13.6 100 -0.0 13.6 169 70 295.5 297.4 290.8 326.9 10.91
4 850 1347 11.3 10.5 95 0.8 10.8 181 89 298.0 299.7 290.4 325.5 9.43But go north of 85 and surface to 950mb winds are 5 to 10 knots...the sharpness of the gradienf surface wind gust plots are crazy. Going to be really interesting seeing how where and how long that boundary lasts.
NoSnowATL
Member
No change here beside rain totals, went from 4-6 to 2-3in. 
NCSNOW
Member
Anyone got paid access to the wind gust maps Nam,Sref,WRF cam models for NC. Povotal has no mercy on the po folk
JHS
Member
The only one I can find for 18z is the NAM and it has 50+ gusts in and near central NC for about 6-9 hours. The NAM 3k looked about the same for central NC.
Statmospheric
Member
Weather.us has free gust plots for most models
Windergawx
Member
wow nice ty
NCSNOW
Member
mrdaddyman thank you so much. Lowest one here is 48-50 highest mid 60s [nam an gfs]. 50 mph+ gust 2-4 rain on our swamp soil will cause a few issues no doubt.
It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
Agreed, wind maps are like ice maps to me.
Yeah, I generally cut them by at least a third as a rule of thumb.
I know we say it a lot but if there's a time these gust map come close to verifying it appears this setup is it. Even if you reduce most guidance by 25% you're still looking at widespread gust of 40+ and as noted, saturated grounds could definitely see some power outage issues. One saving grace, time of year, trees without leaves
Stormsfury
Member
Keep in mind that this reflects the absolute maximum wind gust through the entire event, not the baseline average wind and gusts though. I look at it as what could be possible as a benchmark.
I swear I don’t remember ever seeing wind gusts modeled this high in the Carolinas outside a tropical system. Of course models always seem to overdo winds but even with that, widespread 50-60mph gusts seem very possible
Yeah for sure. This is a really anomalous system, and the winds aloft are quite strong. I just don't trust those gust maps at all. If we do get any CAPE though, all bets are off.
I doubt many believe the max gust they show, but once those maps start showing 60-70 mph gust, 40 becomes more likely
That is true
As always will be interesting to see what actually verifies
Stormsfury
Member
I don't remember seeing a setup like this in January...ever, or maybe one other in 2011.. winds were extremely gusty but it was a nighttime event, and no instability whatsoever down here.
NCSNOW
Member
Yea im with you. Euro is usually way over top on gust maps and its actually the lowest of all the frames.
NCSNOW
Member
Wasnt that an artic front, we actually had cold catch moisture and post frontal frozen for like 20 minutes here right after it passed. Flash Freeze if my memory is correct.
Stormsfury
Member
Might have been, but I do remember the 50-55 mph wind gusts were in the warm sector here... Woke me up from the roar in the middle of the night.