Brick Tamland
Member
Wonder if the wind is just delayed or will it be denied? Maybe the rain this morning will help us out and keep things stabilized for later today.
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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Forevertothee
Member
GSP
As of 655 am EST Tuesday: Our event is well underway at this hour,
with precip covering nearly the entire forecast area. The table has
been set for a busy day. We have a number of problems to discuss,
so let`s get right to it.
Changes for this update include an expansion of thunder to cover
most of the area east of the mtns right away this morning. Elevated
instability was doing the trick across north GA early this morning
and that trend has continued into northeast GA and the western
Upstate. The main severe threat still appears to be this afternoon,
however. A new Wind Advisory was issued for the mountains to take
care of the very strong wind gusts on the cold advection side
of the system after it departs tonight. There is a gap of time
during which the wind will be in a lull. The wind picks up again
from the west during the mid/late evening and will continue from
that direction into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise...the best precip rates have been over the southerly
upslope areas of northeast GA/western Upstate SC/southern mtns
of NC, more or less where we expected early in the event, with
amounts starting to add up. This was soaking down the area and
priming it for problems later on this morning when even heavier
rain seen upstream over north GA and eastern AL gets here thru
late morning. The latest QPF from WPC has come down just a bit, as
have the 6hr prob matched mean precip on the 00Z run of the HREF,
but what remains is still more than adequate to support keeping the
Flood Watch intact. We could contemplate putting Graham and Swain
in there as well, but at this point it is probably academic. The
lower Piedmont of SC/Lakelands remains out of the Watch, but that
still looks ok. No changes to the Flood Watch.
As for the Winter Weather Advisory, there may still be a few
isolated pockets of near freezing temps close to the Blue Ridge
Escarpment north of I-40, but the continued gradual warming across
the nrn mountains/foothills should have taken care of what`s left
in very short order. Thus, we will let the Advisory go on schedule.
As for the Wind situation, it has been somewhat underwhelming
thus far as the strongest winds have been riding up over the
very shallow stable layer across the mtns. However, the higher
peaks are gradually encountering the stronger winds and the gusts
have been creeping upward. Think we are still on track early this
morning. Guidance suggests we will start to mix deeply enough over
the lower Piedmont starting around 15Z to bring frequent wind gusts
of 40-45kt or so down to the ground. The wind gust potential should
then spread northward thru the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon as we uncover more of the fcst area. Guidance suggest
the winds will persist into tonight. More on that later.
The other primary concern is the severe thunderstorm potential. Only
minor changes were made to the new Day 1 Outlook from SPC and that
seems reasonable. Clearly the potential looks better to our S and E
this afternoon and evening, but we still have a good shot at severe
storms. The synoptic scale models bring a plume of low sfc-based
CAPE of 300-500 J/kg across the area along/SE of I-85 from late
morning thru late afternoon ahead of the sfc front, to go along
with what looks like very strong shear. The pattern resembles many
high shear/low CAPE severe weather episodes we have seen over the
years, with a dry punch coming in behind a very strongly forced sfc
boundary. The CAMs in the 00Z HREF do not disappoint, with most
showing some updraft helicity streaks over the area from AND to
GSP to HKY and points east...basically where the plume of weak CAPE
would reach. This checks just about all the boxes for a severe wind
producing squall line across that area, with occasional brief/weak
tornadoes where the line breaks or where embedded meso-vortices
persist. Such brief tornadic circulations are notoriously difficult
to warn with much lead time. Expect part of the area will end up in
some sort of SVR/TOR Watch at some point this afternoon, so be on
the lookout for that. The severe weather threat/additional flooding
threat will end from the west with the passage of the main front.
Tonight, with the front to the east, colder air will move in that
should change any remaining precip over the mtns over to snow
showers thru the mid/late evening. The flow looks unconventional
as it veers from SW to W overnight, but there is enough moisture
that is deep enough into the dendritic growth zone such that
snow showers are a good bet. The westerly flow favors parts of
the Smokies, in particular western Graham County. We may need
to consider a small Winter Weather Advisory depending on how the
forecast trend goes today.
Wind will continue to be a problem tonight, particularly over
the mtns as the cold advection flow takes hold. Guidance has
strong wind gusts persisting through Wednesday morning, so a Wind
Advisory will be issued/extended across the higher terrain through
18Z Wednesday. East of the mtns, it will also be blustery, but
not to the extent that an Advisory is warranted, but this could
also change.
As of 655 am EST Tuesday: Our event is well underway at this hour,
with precip covering nearly the entire forecast area. The table has
been set for a busy day. We have a number of problems to discuss,
so let`s get right to it.
Changes for this update include an expansion of thunder to cover
most of the area east of the mtns right away this morning. Elevated
instability was doing the trick across north GA early this morning
and that trend has continued into northeast GA and the western
Upstate. The main severe threat still appears to be this afternoon,
however. A new Wind Advisory was issued for the mountains to take
care of the very strong wind gusts on the cold advection side
of the system after it departs tonight. There is a gap of time
during which the wind will be in a lull. The wind picks up again
from the west during the mid/late evening and will continue from
that direction into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise...the best precip rates have been over the southerly
upslope areas of northeast GA/western Upstate SC/southern mtns
of NC, more or less where we expected early in the event, with
amounts starting to add up. This was soaking down the area and
priming it for problems later on this morning when even heavier
rain seen upstream over north GA and eastern AL gets here thru
late morning. The latest QPF from WPC has come down just a bit, as
have the 6hr prob matched mean precip on the 00Z run of the HREF,
but what remains is still more than adequate to support keeping the
Flood Watch intact. We could contemplate putting Graham and Swain
in there as well, but at this point it is probably academic. The
lower Piedmont of SC/Lakelands remains out of the Watch, but that
still looks ok. No changes to the Flood Watch.
As for the Winter Weather Advisory, there may still be a few
isolated pockets of near freezing temps close to the Blue Ridge
Escarpment north of I-40, but the continued gradual warming across
the nrn mountains/foothills should have taken care of what`s left
in very short order. Thus, we will let the Advisory go on schedule.
As for the Wind situation, it has been somewhat underwhelming
thus far as the strongest winds have been riding up over the
very shallow stable layer across the mtns. However, the higher
peaks are gradually encountering the stronger winds and the gusts
have been creeping upward. Think we are still on track early this
morning. Guidance suggests we will start to mix deeply enough over
the lower Piedmont starting around 15Z to bring frequent wind gusts
of 40-45kt or so down to the ground. The wind gust potential should
then spread northward thru the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon as we uncover more of the fcst area. Guidance suggest
the winds will persist into tonight. More on that later.
The other primary concern is the severe thunderstorm potential. Only
minor changes were made to the new Day 1 Outlook from SPC and that
seems reasonable. Clearly the potential looks better to our S and E
this afternoon and evening, but we still have a good shot at severe
storms. The synoptic scale models bring a plume of low sfc-based
CAPE of 300-500 J/kg across the area along/SE of I-85 from late
morning thru late afternoon ahead of the sfc front, to go along
with what looks like very strong shear. The pattern resembles many
high shear/low CAPE severe weather episodes we have seen over the
years, with a dry punch coming in behind a very strongly forced sfc
boundary. The CAMs in the 00Z HREF do not disappoint, with most
showing some updraft helicity streaks over the area from AND to
GSP to HKY and points east...basically where the plume of weak CAPE
would reach. This checks just about all the boxes for a severe wind
producing squall line across that area, with occasional brief/weak
tornadoes where the line breaks or where embedded meso-vortices
persist. Such brief tornadic circulations are notoriously difficult
to warn with much lead time. Expect part of the area will end up in
some sort of SVR/TOR Watch at some point this afternoon, so be on
the lookout for that. The severe weather threat/additional flooding
threat will end from the west with the passage of the main front.
Tonight, with the front to the east, colder air will move in that
should change any remaining precip over the mtns over to snow
showers thru the mid/late evening. The flow looks unconventional
as it veers from SW to W overnight, but there is enough moisture
that is deep enough into the dendritic growth zone such that
snow showers are a good bet. The westerly flow favors parts of
the Smokies, in particular western Graham County. We may need
to consider a small Winter Weather Advisory depending on how the
forecast trend goes today.
Wind will continue to be a problem tonight, particularly over
the mtns as the cold advection flow takes hold. Guidance has
strong wind gusts persisting through Wednesday morning, so a Wind
Advisory will be issued/extended across the higher terrain through
18Z Wednesday. East of the mtns, it will also be blustery, but
not to the extent that an Advisory is warranted, but this could
also change.
Ron Burgundy
Member
For a brief moment there I was under a tornado warning at 44/42. There’s something you don’t experience every day. ?
Hrrr/nam look mean later with that line 
We know the wind gust maps are always overdone, no argument there, it's well established. However, latest run of 3k NAM showed a potential peak wind gust of 37 mph in Wake around 9:00 am and RDU has reported a 30 mph gust, so not too far off actually.
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,290
- Reaction score
- 4,981
I chased that tornado up the southwest side of Atlanta. It looks like it did some minor damage to cars and trucks at I-285 and I-85 near the airport. I probably should have pulled over, but man I wanted to see it!
vsublazer
Member
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,290
- Reaction score
- 4,981
My temp is dropping at the house. Dropped 3 degrees in an hour. Not sure why...checking latest HRRR for reasons. Down to 50 now under heavy rain. The best I can tell is that the mesocyclone that drove through (that possibly had a tornado) brought a heavy down burst of colder temps aloft and also brought the winds around from the northwest sooner than otherwise would have happened. I may have reached my high for today of 52.7, though I bet we bounce up a bit once the rain slacks off and before the cold air moves in.
Last edited:
Chrisgo
Member
Hello everyone. I'm expecting wind gusts up to 55mph for my area in Eastern NC. Potential up to 70+mph towards the coast. Hope everyone stay safe
Tarheelwx
Member
Dead calm and 43.3 here in Colfax NC, about 4 miles west of GSO.
TW
TW
It’s still around 45 where I am after the main line of storms have progressed east. Temperatures haven’t really budged that much since last night.
coldspringsfarm
Member
yep just moderate rain here just NW of Winston Salem
ryanardo
Member
This could definitely one for the books for this time of year, don't know why yall are canceling the event, all the dynamics are coming together here for cae, give it time
Ron Burgundy
Member
Wow - didn’t think it had touched down. It was only an active warning for a few minutes.