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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Lickwx said:
NAM busted hugely on temps today , in places like north ga , western sc/nc it is as much as 10 degrees warmer than what it has currently . RDU had 47 forecast by the NAM . It’s 51 with more time to warm up and clearing skies . I’m not saying it’s not going to snow but won’t this delay the changeover ?
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I feel like it doesn’t usually matter as much as we give it credit for either way (hotter or colder than forecasted), but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little concerned.
 
superjames1992 said:
I feel like it doesn’t usually matter as much as we give it credit for either way (hotter or colder than forecasted), but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little concerned.
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I’d say so, last few hours we now cast so every little difference seems to mean something lol. Though the temp difference form the NAM is not slight at all I must say . Gfs not much better . All in all , it only means that changeover might take longer ? That’s the only thing I can think of that could possibly be affected .
 
Lickwx said:
NAM busted hugely on temps today , in places like north ga , western sc/nc it is as much as 10 degrees warmer than what it has currently . RDU had 47 forecast by the NAM . It’s 51 with more time to warm up and clearing skies . I’m not saying it’s not going to snow but won’t this delay the changeover ?
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I didn't look that closely into for today but you have to consider why the model depicted those temps, if I'm not mistaken the NAM really didn't show it clearing out today, if it had I think it would've shown warmer temps. Models like the NAM are generally better with thermals during an event but have larger margins of error with clear skies, whether it's daytime highs or too warm with clear cold (radiational cooling) nights. Bottom line can it warm the ground enough to cut into totals some, sure but with this event occurring at night, strong CAA and heavy rates, shouldn't be too much of an issue.
 
metwannabe said:
I didn't look that closely into for today but you have to consider why the model depicted those temps, if I'm not mistaken the NAM really didn't show it clearing out today, if it had I think it would've shown warmer temps. Models like the NAM are generally better with thermals during an event but have larger margins of error with clear skies, whether it's daytime highs or too warm with clear cold (radiational cooling) nights. Bottom line can it warm the ground enough to cut into totals some, sure but with this event occurring at night, strong CAA and heavy rates, shouldn't be too much of an issue.
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It would be good if the clearing lasted until after sunset a bit to get some radiational cooling, too.

I imagine the sun isn’t helping soil temps, at the very least, which is concerning.

FWIW, I do remember people in the Triangle freaking out about temperatures shooting up into the upper 40s prior to the December 2010 storm, and that turned out well.
 
superjames1992 said:
It would be good if the clearing lasted until after sunset a bit to get some radiational cooling, too.

I imagine the sun isn’t helping soil temps, at the very least, which is concerning.

FWIW, I do remember people in the Triangle freaking out about temperatures shooting up into the upper 40s prior to the December 2010 storm, and that turned out well.
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Best case scenario, sun dry out the land some, stay clear enough for some radiational cooling and then go time hahaha.... that's asking too much
 
superjames1992 said:
It would be good if the clearing lasted until after sunset a bit to get some radiational cooling, too.

I imagine the sun isn’t helping soil temps, at the very least, which is concerning.

FWIW, I do remember people in the Triangle freaking out about temperatures shooting up into the upper 40s prior to the December 2010 storm, and that turned out well.
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Yeah, I was just wondering about that. Haven't look at many model forecasts of how this will evolve, but our system is still relatively far west (nearest clouds are over Tennessee). Hopefully we can cut temps down a few degrees with clear skies tonight.
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Well, we have a DeeTeeee call map and Bricks! Cage match to the death! I’m siding with DT!87B00E5C-B6DC-4C82-A89C-3C560487D1D9.png
 
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