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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Agreed with that. I didn't mean to imply I-40 was looking bad, but just more highlighting that 158 ain't lookin too shabby right now.

Brick, I am just to the south of this blue line. But I'll take it!:cool:
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I'm just north of the line. I'll send you some pics.... ;)
 
Good to see Allan is also finally on board w/ 2-4"+. The call map I produced in the pre-dawn hours this morning w/ an anticipated 2-5"+ jackpot zone near the VA border is looking real good overall right now imo. I might have to slightly adjust the locations of where the heaviest snow is, but not expecting any significant adjustments when I finalize it later this evening.

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I’m not an artist, but this is my thinking. Light blue is up to 2” of slush. Purple is up to 1” of slush. Green is mainly rain, but .5” of slush is possible. Everything is melted by 3pm tomorrow afternoon.

EDIT: As everyone can see the dot on the map, that’s my location. Definitely not going for a home run swing in my area (or anywhere). I wish I could say there would be more, but my heart won’t let me. Just tells me that this will be a painful heartbreaker. I’ve seen the models show all kinds of snow and only to wake up the next day with garbage.
 
SENC said:
Honestly, I DO NOT expect any accumulations here.. Due too "soil Temps',, unless rates or a possible Frontal Geneses Ban develops very close to My north, (Which is Modeled by about 20 miles or so..)
if anything,,, I'm looking at a paste bomb Starting around Daybreak, lasting about 3~4 hours..
Which I'll Gladly accept..
;)
Anything "extra"? I'll Sacrifice a Virgin SnowMan too the Weather Gods,, LOL J/K.. ;)

For Sundays event...
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Accumulations at Topsail Beach? I wouldn't expect that either . . .
 
Ollie Williams said:
Interesting considering the HRRR has it happening an hour earlier.
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Editing for better clarification .. My bad

Regarding the timing of this event, I won't be staying up to watch it snow. I'm not going to be able to see the flakes fly since it'll be after 1am, and i'll be in bed..
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Good to see Allan is also finally on board w/ 2-4"+. The call map I produced in the pre-dawn hours this morning w/ an anticipated 2-5"+ jackpot zone near the VA border is looking real good overall right now imo. I might have to slightly adjust the locations of where the heaviest snow is, but not expecting any significant adjustments when I finalize it later this evening.

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These are ground truth predictions right Webb? [considering BL and soil temps yada yada]
 
Dec 8th/9th 2018 we were supposed to get a short changeover and snow for a couple hours. Dusting was all that was forecasted and after 3 hours of hammering huge flakes we ended up with almost 3 to 4 inches. Hoping for more of that magic tonight.

 
tramadoc said:
His thinking is about like mine. I think he’s overdone on the 2-4” area around me.
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I've noticed in a lot of winter storms, there's usually a sharp cut-off in totals somewhere around east-central Tyrrell or western Dare counties between the Albemarle & Pamlico sounds, and totals are often lower for locations south of Elizabeth City immediately adjacent to the Albemarle sound. I'd wager he's a bit too far SE w/ his totals over E NC for these reasons among others and probably too low in SW VA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've noticed in a lot of winter storms, there's usually a sharp cut-off in totals somewhere around east-central Tyrrell or western Dare counties between the Albemarle & Pamlico sounds, and totals are often lower for locations south of Elizabeth City immediately adjacent to the Albemarle sound. I'd wager he's a bit too far SE w/ his totals over E NC for these reasons among others and probably too low in SW VA.
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Agreed some places in SW va could see 5-6 inches forsure
 
NAM busted hugely on temps today , in places like north ga , western sc/nc it is as much as 10 degrees warmer than what it has currently . RDU had 47 forecast by the NAM . It’s 51 with more time to warm up and clearing skies . I’m not saying it’s not going to snow but won’t this delay the changeover ?
 
Avalanche said:
54 and sunny. All precip wasted on cooling Im afraid.
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Yup, like the Jan 8th system. The timing was good because the snow fell in the late evening, but some of those models were still showing a couple of inches until the last minute. I got maybe half an inch and it was gone within an hour or so. I hate to be a downer, but if you are buying these GFS maps you may be setting yourselves up for disappointment. I am rooting for you guys though. But you have to realistic as well. Otherwise, you're going to need some booze to drink those sorrows away. Lol.
 
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