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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Deform band still looks great for clt metro. Assuming we switch over it should be a fun morning.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_16.png
 
packfan98 said:
Deform band on the 23z hrrr starting to look more anemic east of the mountains compared to earlier runs.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was worried about that, they rarely roll east and if they do it's drying up as the deepening slp pulls rapidly away
 
packfan98 said:
Deform band on the 23z hrrr starting to look more anemic east of the mountains compared to earlier runs.
Click to expand...

Noticed that, too. As others have noted, the western edge almost always moves out quicker than originally modeled. Also, the change over to snow is almost always slower than modeled. For these reasons alone, expectations should be held in check here.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I was worried about that, they rarely roll east and if they do it's drying up as the deepening slp pulls rapidly away
Click to expand...
Yes, I’m definitely concerned that if it actually does set up west of here like depicted that it’ll stall and/or die out as it moves east, like February 2014 did. I don’t have hope for more than white rain.
 
Parker said:
23z picked up on a dry slot to areas west of BHM and it really lowered the snow total, luckily it did not affect the metro, but that is something I would like to see go away. It was a rather significant decrease.

I HATE a dry slot.
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