Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[TheBatman]

Nice for AL
View attachment 101017

What a deformation band. Unreal!! Go from storm at 75 degrees last night to this. But heck Denver in September 2020 was at 93 degrees day before and actually accumulate a inch of snow the next day.

 

[Metwannabe]

I think our best bet in NC east of the mountains is for the deform band to really get cranking and roll east before it dries up. Convinced we see a few flakes fly but losing confidence in any type of minor slushy accumulation

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice deform band this hrrr run

 

[Goose88]

With the Gulf being as warm as it is could this pump out more moisture as it progresses or does it need to be closer to the Gulf?

 

[Rain Cold]

With the Gulf being as warm as it is could this pump out more moisture as it progresses or does it need to be closer to the Gulf?

There's not really much of a Gulf tap on this one.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like there might legitimately be some thunderstorms in the morning with a small severe hazard then snow hours later, pretty crazy

 

[Metwannabe]

Nice deform band this hrrr run View attachment 101022

That dry slot though

 

[Ward Cleaver]

The cutoffs in Guilford County (NC) could be brutal. Rain in the SE and 3” in the NW.

Again, these setups rarely work out for me. I wake up to a cold rain, wait for a changeover, and end up with a quarter inch of slush on the mulch.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia looks pretty good. But it looks as if the axis of snow shifted south a bit on the 12z HRRR compared to 06z. Hopefully we can trend it more and more like this throughout the day.


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[Myfrotho704_]

That dry slot though

Looks more realistic given the dry slot aloft then deformation axis that pivots thru during the day with the moist comma head

 

[Metwannabe]

A couple of hours of light snow after this debacle of a December, I'll take it

 

[Metwannabe]

HRRR slightly improved actually

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t know where to put this but the HRRR is legitimately close to some soundings favorable for tornadoes, rotating elevated supercells at the very least, it’s a good thing this setup isn’t happening later or we would run into big problems

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow

 

[Storm5]

From a friend of my wife's in Texas

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[Metwannabe]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow View attachment 101028View attachment 101027

Good luck man it would be a nice bonus for you since your transition back from the heat miser

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[gawxnative]

Looks okay to me. BL temps are a bit iffy but with heavy precip this would definitely fall as heavy wet snow View attachment 101028View attachment 101027

I posted the Current SPC Day 1 on the "New Years Severte" thread, as it is a continuation of the system yesterday

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

A couple of hours of light snow after this debacle of a December, I'll take it

Somebody is gonna get a surprising burst of heavy snow/sleet/graupel as the deform band pivots with a round of 850mb/900mb FGEN with the CAA, I’m just wondering where that area will be