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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

TreyAustin said:
I think this will be a major surprise for folks in the Triangle area. I think many areas in the Triangle and slightly east end up with 2-3".
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More likely to be a surprise closer to the apps where the cold air has a chance to funnel through better. In the analogs shared by Webb and Johnathan, the spots that tend to outperform are north of the Triad if anywhere.
 
Not the mama said:
How far have yall seen models push west or east within this time frame we have left.
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its not so much an actual low track or anything of that sorts, these models are trying their best to give us a snapshot of a lot of moving parts at 500mb. in my opinion the moisture is under modeled, still, just due to the shear energy up there.

but, with that said, on the eastern side of the mountains, there is always the risk of the cold not catching up in time without a true low pressure churning off the coast throwing moisture well back inland

if you take a look at the frontogenesis charts, you generally want to be close to all the purple cirlces they show. that's where the best forcing is to allow heavy enough precipitation to dynamically cool the column if you're on the edge (like my yard is).

if you are in an area where the cold is in place, the precipitation field should in theory, look better than modeled at this point. but again, its so touchy in this type of setup and what's mainly causing it is not a storm so much as forcing/frontogenesis
 
weather nerd said:
its not so much an actual low track or anything of that sorts, these models are trying their best to give us a snapshot of a lot of moving parts at 500mb. in my opinion the moisture is under modeled, still, just due to the shear energy up there.

but, with that said, on the eastern side of the mountains, there is always the risk of the cold not catching up in time without a true low pressure churning off the coast throwing moisture well back inland

if you take a look at the frontogenesis charts, you generally want to be close to all the purple cirlces they show. that's where the best forcing is to allow heavy enough precipitation to dynamically cool the column if you're on the edge (like my yard is).

if you are in an area where the cold is in place, the precipitation field should in theory, look better than modeled at this point. but again, its so touchy in this type of setup and what's mainly causing it is not a storm so much as forcing/frontogenesis
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Thank you. That’s a really helpful explanation.
 
UNCSC said:
I know saying this leads to heart break but radar looks more robust than modeled
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My favorite part of a SE winter storm, other than actually seeing the snow fall once every 10 years, is the radar hallucination phase!
 
Unless the temp dramatically rises between now and three ish I don't think we're reaching the forecast high, which idk if it makes a difference or not here,
 
Chazwin said:
Well I I just looked at the sounding in NAM3km for location and it’s a fairly clear snow sounding from about 9 am on tomorrow. I can’t tell you how many times in the last 10-15 years, the NAM would be showing thermal issues for me 24 hours out while the GFS would be showing no issues only for the NAM to be right. Now they’re in pretty lock stop agreement.
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Yeah the warm advection / overrunning aspect with this one is modest. For CLT, it’s more about frontogenesis and trying to get into a heavy band after the switchover as colder air slides in from the west, but with surface temperatures probably a tick above freezing. I’m in Knoxville and won’t be there to see

But this setup isn’t one of those where we have a maturing southern stream system moving in with healthy 850mb warm advection pushing right into us with no cold air damming. Those are the ones that like to trend NW temperature wise

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mydoortotheworld said:
Actually you joke but to be honest I think the GFS really had the idea first that even the AI models had to adjust to at some point. Of course all of this needs to play out first before we can even draw such a crazy conclusion
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UKMET was actually first, UKMET is just an idiot and can't keep it.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Actually you joke but to be honest I think the GFS really had the idea first that even the AI models had to adjust to at some point. Of course all of this needs to play out first before we can even draw such a crazy conclusion
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Ukmet was 1st, as someone posted correctly. I even called,posted it when it happened, so can verify
 
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Allan Huffman


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mydoortotheworld said:
Actually you joke but to be honest I think the GFS really had the idea first that even the AI models had to adjust to at some point. Of course all of this needs to play out first before we can even draw such a crazy conclusion
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I dont want to count chickens before they hatch but this is Pretty funny since we were confidently told the AI models had it all figured out 72 to 84 hours out and it was all but over for anyone north and west of the immediate coast. . I dont mean to sound like a jerk about it but the idea the AI models are near perfect is rather silly. I think folks should keep this in mind in the future.

Edit to add the 12z euro.

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