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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Egg I hope you’re right. I am still not holding my breath but hopefully at least some light snow in Shelby tomorrow. Then maybe a big dog Jan 27-29
 
Well I I just looked at the sounding in NAM3km for location and it’s a fairly clear snow sounding from about 9 am on tomorrow. I can’t tell you how many times in the last 10-15 years, the NAM would be showing thermal issues for me 24 hours out while the GFS would be showing no issues only for the NAM to be right. Now they’re in pretty lock stop agreement.
 
Wade2026 said:
Egg I hope you’re right. I am still not holding my breath but hopefully at least some light snow in Shelby tomorrow. Then maybe a big dog Jan 27-29
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it’s getting very rough out here and sadly i think more likely than not we don’t get accumulating snow out of this event. just too many things need to perfectly happen for us to get a chance. hopefully i’m wrong and we get a surprise coating to an inch tho!
 
Good news for my ATL snow lovers: HRRR 18Z might start showing a more widespread area of a changeover late tonight or at least within a corridor of heavier precip in the region judging by the 15Z RAP which usually plays out similar to the long-range HRRR runs 3 hours later. Still gonna be hard to get accumulations with this first wave, but some wet snow would be nice.
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HailCore said:
Good news for my ATL snow lovers: HRRR 18Z might start showing a more widespread area of a changeover late tonight or at least within a corridor of heavier precip in the region judging by the 15Z RAP which usually plays out similar to the long-range HRRR runs 3 hours later. Still gonna be hard to get accumulations with this first wave, but some wet snow would be nice.
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woahhh 👀 that’s a lot more amped
 
Would have donated my leg to have this trend start 24 hours earlier. The precip just keeps inching closer and closer to central Alabama. Hoping for a major miracle that models are off on the precip fields but I gave up last night.

I just want some real accumulation for people to prove some local Mets wrong.
 
Agree Egg. Probably Snow Showers unless the system can come another 50-100 miles west. Southern Foothills have had no luck the last 4 years. Hopefully that’s changing l!
 
Wade2026 said:
Agree Egg. Probably Snow Showers unless the system can come another 50-100 miles west. Southern Foothills have had no luck the last 4 years. Hopefully that’s changing l!
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this nw trend we have going rn is certainly keeping me interested
 
For what it’s worth this was from the NWS Raleigh.


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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
tempo47 said:
When is this supposed to arrive in ATL area time frame wise?
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I would say the best shot at light winter weather would be somewhere around midnight, maybe plus or minus an hour or two. The initial precip will move in this evening, and if the cold catches it then a transition can happen briefly. The morning batch with accumulations will probably be in central GA around daybreak tomorrow and at this time will likely remain south of the city at this time, but any more northwest shifts and ATL might be in on the action with that round.
 
Mahomeless said:
The NW trend is really only beneficial if you are away from the Apps…CAA is going to be grossly delayed in NC.
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yeah just hoping if we get heavier precip we could crash the column sooner. i’d rather have a shot than see areas 50 miles to my east score
 
HailCore said:
I would say the best shot at light winter weather would be somewhere around midnight, maybe plus or minus an hour or two. The initial precip will move in this evening, and if the cold catches it then a transition can happen briefly. The morning batch with accumulations will probably be in central GA around daybreak tomorrow and at this time will likely remain south of the city at this time, but any more northwest shifts and ATL might be in on the action with that round.
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Of course, GFS thinks we get the NW edge of that second round in the morning hours once the cold should be here. But it’s the GFS… so not gonna hold my breath unless we see anything else back that up.

Even still, GFS doesn’t think even that (mostly wet) snow will really stick much given the warm ground.
 
cyclogent said:
Getting it to snow is one thing. Getting it to stick is another.
Boundary layer, soil temps, and daytime insolation really cutting into the totals with this setup. Very slushy.

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It'll stick. The snow depth maps had my house at like an inch or two before 2017. Let's just say that the slush accumulated 10 inches with surface Temps around freezing.

Those snow depth maps are garbage.
 
GFS and HRRR are Lucy enticing me (Charlie Brown) with the football, again (sigh).

I’m not optimistic at all for my neck of the woods, but I’m intrigued just enough by this morning to start watching again. 😂

—30—
 
xshare said:
Of course, GFS thinks we get the NW edge of that second round in the morning hours once the cold should be here. But it’s the GFS… so not gonna hold my breath unless we see anything else back that up.

Even still, GFS doesn’t think even that (mostly wet) snow will really stick much given the warm ground.
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I like seeing that trend on the GFS because if you look at it from a composite reflectivity perspective, it is basically showing what most other model guidance shows, maybe slightly more aggressively as light reflectivity will move back into the metro area in the morning. I would be more excited however if the GFS did not have all of that as virga, because the air the snow is falling into is very dry, much like the short range guidance, but the GFS depicts it at the ground as snow when in reality its not. Unless we see major short range guidance showing it this way, probably not something I would get your hopes up about.
 
Arcc said:
It'll stick. The snow depth maps had my house at like an inch or two before 2017. Let's just say that the slush accumulated 10 inches with surface Temps around freezing.

Those snow depth maps are garbage.
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Yeah, I think it would be fair to use Kuchera here or just take the 10:1 map and slash 1/5th off.
 
HailCore said:
Good news for my ATL snow lovers: HRRR 18Z might start showing a more widespread area of a changeover late tonight or at least within a corridor of heavier precip in the region judging by the 15Z RAP which usually plays out similar to the long-range HRRR runs 3 hours later. Still gonna be hard to get accumulations with this first wave, but some wet snow would be nice.
View attachment 184618
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Latest HRRR is a lot more puny, but we'll take whatever trends we can get and maybe magically the 18z will have colder environment and slightly more broad snow band like the RAP. Then again, the RAP lower resolution is probably to blame for a larger footprint. Bottom line is if trends keep steady, flakes are likely to fly somewhere in ATL tonight
1768667061028.png
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Jonathan Wall shared this earlier.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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That storm came to mind yesterday when thinking about this storm, but I wasn’t sure about the particular setup. I remember we got tons of rain that day before it finally changed over and we got a warning criteria snowfall in the Triad after dark. Of course, with BL temps and warm, wet ground impacts were not as great as you’d usually expect from a 3-4” storm (I think we only had a two-hour delay at college).
 
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