• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Webberweather53 said:
Central Wake county got mostly rain out of that event, we had more than enough QPF to support a few inches of sleet but that didn’t obviously happen, all the snow/ip totals were below 1”. The airport was closer to the 💩 line but that’s almost always the case

Here’s the ZR map btw, proving my point: we spent a lot of QPF on rain and ZR, that mixed with sleet, The airport got a third of the freezing rain we had in downtown Raleigh.


View attachment 184592
Click to expand...
I was wrong you were right. Jan 2017 central NC had all rain while the models were showing snow. It happens more than I thought. My mistakes and my apologies.
 
What are yall thinking opinion wise for the Augusta/CSRA area tomorrow? It seems like it trending towards getting an inch or 2 here. But I’m also on the newer side of understanding this stuff at a deeper level
 
Friends in the Athens-ATL corridor.. it's not looking good for us. At 3AM, our surface is still well above freezing with the dry slot showing up around 4AM - and there just isn't much moisture left by then. Super depressing seeing so much blue to our east and nothing for our backyards. I hope it crushes over mid-state SC because ya'll always get left out.

Untitled.png
 
diamonddave said:
What are yall thinking opinion wise for the Augusta/CSRA area tomorrow? It seems like it trending towards getting an inch or 2 here. But I’m also on the newer side of understanding this stuff at a deeper level
Click to expand...
You will learn why not having mountains huge to your north and west could help you score here. You’ve a setup with near perfect timing in Southern GA. Cold air isn’t trapped and will slip into your area and likely combine with the overrunning precip. You are one of the lucky ones.
 
saielA10462 said:
You will learn why not having mountains huge to your north and west could help you score here. You’ve a setup with near perfect timing in Southern GA. Cold air isn’t trapped and will slip into your area and likely combine with the overrunning precip. You are one of the lucky ones.
Click to expand...

I placed it in banter as it's somewhat bittercasting to an extent, but honestly, I'm legitimately concerned that the far east in Georgia is not far enough to the west.

The American models say it is, but there are several models that are saying that it's not.
 
Last edited:
jeremyt said:
Wouldn’t that also limit lows going through the night?
Click to expand...
Clouds were rolling in the evening regardless tonight. We aren’t relying on radiational cooling to get the temps down. It’s dynamic cooling with a fresh supply of cold air rolling from the NW. if you’re already sitting in the mid 30’s when precip comes in it won’t require as much to cool the boundary layer temps. For mby temps aren’t the issue since I’ll be right where the cold air is going to be the closest on the east side of the mountains. It’s getting the precip in
 
iGRXY said:
Clouds were rolling in the evening regardless tonight. We aren’t relying on radiational cooling to get the temps down. It’s dynamic cooling with a fresh supply of cold air rolling from the NW. if you’re already sitting in the mid 30’s when precip comes in it won’t require as much to cool the boundary layer temps.
Click to expand...
So it won’t break low 40’s?
 
Rain Cold said:
The good thing here is the beefing up of precip amounts. Hope that trend continues. It's going to take as much evaporational cooling and melting as we can get to cool the baking surface temps in the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
Very true. If it takes 0.3” liquid to cool the column, for example, and you get 0.3”, that’s a problem. But some of the modeling is now showing areas of the Piedmont of NC / SC / GA edging towards 1” liquid, which gives them a lot more leeway even if a lot of it is wasted. I have low expectations here, but my hopes are probably unreasonably high.
 
iGRXY said:
I’ll be honest, unless these clouds burn off, I have a very hard time believing we are getting to the low 50’s imby. I’m currently under thick clouds at 37 degrees and a very stiff wind
Click to expand...
SW surface flow disagrees with you even with the clouds
 
iGRXY said:
I’ll be honest, unless these clouds burn off, I have a very hard time believing we are getting to the low 50’s imby. I’m currently under thick clouds at 37 degrees and a very stiff wind
Click to expand...
yeah i’m stuck at 40 with very thick cloud cover as well
 
jrips27 said:
GFS zoomed in View attachment 184609
Click to expand...
GFS now also showing the power of frontogenesis with a maturing Atlantic cyclone. One reason why SC is getting skipped over, the dynamics have unfortunately passed over them and are starting to produce more lift and precip over NC and Virginia. I think far north NC and SE Virginia will be the winners here
 
So whose ship is sinking lol. Are we gonna be dead quiet if the HRRR pans out or is hell breaking lose if the HRRR comes along with guidance because man this could be a dynamic system. Serious wins for the HRRR and RGEM if we’re all bored in a cold rain and if we even come close to the GFS and NAM…. Would be generational.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top