Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[accu35]

 

[NCSNOW]

Anybody got access to a better 500mb current than this?

 

[anc.py]

ICON ingested the 00z data pretty darn heavily, as seen in that back-wave.

 

[Tokenfreak]

Not necessarily, precip expansion to the NW is due to some WAA which is obviously warming layers and you get rain. Best bet is some coastal enhancement that keeps precip going while allowing the column to cool sufficiently. I think this is what the NAMs and even the Google AI model are showing

Oh ok cool makes sense thanks for the explanation.


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[Wild Weather Monger]

I was surprised the NAM was as good as it was tbh after seeing the initial move further eastward over Texas. All else being equal, just slowing it down a few hours would have done the trick here to give more time for CAA out of the NW. Which, by the way, is usually slower than forecast here east of Atlanta.

It just goes to show how maddeningly close it is for those pulling for that NW trend. Hanging in there!

 

[KyloG]

18z CMC went beast mode

 

[HailCore]

18z CMC went beast mode

View attachment 184428View attachment 184429

Wow, I didn't even know they had an 18Z, but makes sense.

 

[anc.py]

Operational ticked west with surface LP.

 

[jrips27]

3K NAM and RRFS are pretty similar as far as orientation/placement near Atlanta. Is there time for more shifts? I’m mildly interested

 

[rburrel2]

3K NAM and RRFS are pretty similar as far as orientation/placement near Atlanta. Is there time for more shifts? I’m mildly interested

View attachment 184433View attachment 184434

Those models could stay right there and precip still bust 20-30 miles north of that line at go time. So yes, there’s still time.

 

[vtrap90]

3K NAM and RRFS are pretty similar as far as orientation/placement near Atlanta. Is there time for more shifts? I’m mildly interested

View attachment 184433View attachment 184434

Absolutely. Atlanta should be thankful this is happening on a Sunday before a Holiday and not on a random Tuesday.

 

[jrips27]

Those models could stay right there and precip still bust 20-30 miles north of that line at go time. So yes, there’s still time.

Yeah I know things can and probably will keep ticking NW. I said last night I’d give it til 0z tonight to see signs of a comeback and here we are. Fascinating stuff!

I will drive to Macon if they have a shot at 3 inches haha

 

[Bigedd09]

What a battle we have between short range models right now. Definitely interesting


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[RBR71]

Let's go! Lol tbf it is an improvement

 

[Bigedd09]

RGEM much further east than 18z. What a battle we have on our hands.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Let's go! Lol tbf it is an improvement
View attachment 184437

she jumped

 

[RBR71]

RGEM backed off from it's robust 18z output for NC, but still some flakes flying

 

[SegTindo]

The NW trend has been crazy so far hopefully it keeps up!!


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[cyclogent]

That's a big trough. You can tell the jet is roaring over the Rockies and pointed nearly due south with that cloud feathering pattern. Beautiful image. Hope this system can deliver some white magic for many. I'll be on the dry NW side cheering you on lol.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Anybody got access to a better 500mb current than this?

View attachment 184427

You can view the meso anylasis page.

 

[vtrap90]

You can view the meso anylasis page.

Storm Prediction Center - Mesoscale Analysis Pages

Severe weather information from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[NBAcentel]

GFS still going

 

[Snowfan]

NW trend again.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Unlike the 00Z NAM, the GFS is still trending SW with the base. through 24 hrs.

 

[BKWRN29]

NW

NW trend again. View attachment 184444

If only that would happen about 3-4 more times! I wish it wasn’t so tilted!

 

[weather bubba]

This system is picking up strength and steam with every model run no matter the precipitation type. For those who get anything wintry out of this, there could be some more robust snow totals than previously advertised. I hope things continue to get more interesting overnight.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Do we have a couple more runs continue this trend?

 

[anc.py]

 

[Snowfan]

Full map for the GA/SC/NC crowd.

 

[vtrap90]

Do we have a couple more runs continue this trendView attachment 184446?

All the way until go time. It has happened before.

 

[tempo47]

At this point who knows what will happen

 

[superjames1992]

Hard not to like the trends right now, even if it’ll still probably end in rain for most of us.

 

[SegTindo]

NW trend again. View attachment 184444

We just need 1-3 more ticks NW and it’s gold!!


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[accu35]

Full map for the GA/SC/NC crowd. View attachment 184451

Can you back that image out further south? Thanks

 

[BKWRN29]

I am not holding much hope until the euro come out. If it is shifted NW then I will start getting my hopes up.

 

[Snowfan]

Can you back that image out further south? Thanks

 

[accu35]

View attachment 184452

Thank you!! I’ll be in Pensacola. This is getting very interesting for there

 

[LovingGulfLows]

This reminds me of last year so much it's crazy.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We just need 1-3 more ticks NW and it’s gold!!


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Ordinarily, those of us wishing for an NW trend rob those to the east of their snow. That isn't the case here. The further NW the precip shield manages to make it, the better those in the jackpot zones to the east do.

 

[Makeitsnow]

View attachment 184447

We.now have several models showing at least light accumulations in the athens area. One or two more shifts like this and an inch isn't out of the question. Atlanta is right on the edge..again even a ten or 20 mile shift one way or the other is critical but if we can keep this going until show time it would be pretty significant.