rburrel2
Member
If the upstate can get this finger to wind up over us? Boom. It’s still on the table. Euro clearly trending that way.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
This is pretty good looking right here. I think there will be some surprises today and tomorrow. Clear NW shift on all the models at 06z. Hopefully that can continue at 12z and onward. Still not giving up!
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
We sit pretty well where we're both at right now. I hate how it works around here where we always have to pray we're out of precip then after that pray closer to the system for NW ticks. NW ticks here can add up to a large amount in some cases. There are some examples similar to this system, 2017, 2014, etc. today will be the big day and if we keep NW trends today with more sampling it should continue on
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Adding onto this. Euro may not exactly be handling this the best. Don't know for certain but only time will tell.
rburrel2
Member
South central Georgia seems locked in to a decent snow from this. Must be nice to get snow every year.
Brandon10
Member
One thing to also note....there is a difference in the precipitation shield, expanding Northwest and a Northwest trend in the actual low pressure track.
My point for areas east of the mountains is that right now there is strong agreement on modeling that temperatures aloft are supportive of snow provided there is enough moisture to get the rates for dynamic cooling.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This is true. However, with both, you typically rise temps.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
When you look at QPF right now, it is oddly similar to the looks of 2017. I don't exactly know why euro ticked SE this run while other models likes the NW trend. Friendly reminder though, Euro failed greatly with 2017. Does that mean it will now? Only time can tell.
We need the rain
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Big difference in satellite forecast on hrr and nam 3k at 6z sunday, Sat night . Also the precip is much heavier and more NW at the same time. However remember it is the 48 hr pn HRR .
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Been keeping an eye on this as well, waiting for 12z here to see if it continues. Verga precip is how these NW trends start.
I like these northwest trends for you folks in Georgia, Alabama and the western half of NC/SC. I hope you do well with this storm. It looks like this isn't the storm for us in Raleigh and points east in North Carolina. Unless rates are really heavy, the temperatures will be too warm outside of a few token flakes to end the storm possibly where I live in Wake County it appears. The NAM is the only model showing anything resembling a snow event for the RDU area. I'll say it has been stubborn.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Man it would feel good to not get scammed by storms again. Up here in Northeast Georgia we got screwed by both storms last year. Dryslotted badly the 1st one and the snow line in the 2nd one was about 5 miles due south.
rburrel2
Member
If this is like 2017, we may not see model corrections on qpf until precip starts breaking out along the gulf coast Saturday evening.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
A possibility, yes. Over runners are extremely hard to forecast but generally it's safe to kinda try going with the NW tick as they try to go as deep into the CAA as they can.
iGRXY
Member
Say what you will but the HRRR was the first model to sniff out the big FGEN snow back in Jan 2022 that held on much longer than modeled around here.
Forevertothee
Member
While not too inspiring, it's better than I expected. Columbia NWS
Key Message 1: A rain-snow mix is possible on Sunday but potential
for significant accumulation is low.
The overall synoptic forecast will continue to favor a deepening
trough through the central CONUS with surface low pressure moving
along the coast with overrunning leading to developing precipitation
over the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Trends in the GFS and
GEFS suite have brought it closer in line with EC and EC ensembles
with a more progressive trough. Strongest warm advection and
associated frontogenesis has generally shifted east, although again
this can be a tricky feature to pinpoint as the previous discussion
mentioned. Temperatures continue to appear marginal for accumulating
snow and it is likely that any snow will struggle to accumulate
outside of some stronger banding where snow rates would be able to
overcome marginal surface temperatures. This appears to be less
likely over much of the forecast area as the progged strongest warm
advection has shifted east. Guidance continues to lower the
ceiling of this snow event. Blended guidance probability of 1
inch or greater of snow is around 10-20% across the area, with a
notable decrease among GEFS members in the last couple runs,
indicating that the higher-end limit will generally be Winter
Weather Advisory criteria but this potential remains low. While
it will be worth monitoring how things may evolve as we enter
into the timeframe for higher resolution model guidance, at this
point it appears that the most likely scenario will be rain
developing over the area late Saturday night with snow mixing in
with rain during the day Sunday, which will likely struggle to
accumulate. Drier air likely moves into the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.
Key Message 1: A rain-snow mix is possible on Sunday but potential
for significant accumulation is low.
The overall synoptic forecast will continue to favor a deepening
trough through the central CONUS with surface low pressure moving
along the coast with overrunning leading to developing precipitation
over the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Trends in the GFS and
GEFS suite have brought it closer in line with EC and EC ensembles
with a more progressive trough. Strongest warm advection and
associated frontogenesis has generally shifted east, although again
this can be a tricky feature to pinpoint as the previous discussion
mentioned. Temperatures continue to appear marginal for accumulating
snow and it is likely that any snow will struggle to accumulate
outside of some stronger banding where snow rates would be able to
overcome marginal surface temperatures. This appears to be less
likely over much of the forecast area as the progged strongest warm
advection has shifted east. Guidance continues to lower the
ceiling of this snow event. Blended guidance probability of 1
inch or greater of snow is around 10-20% across the area, with a
notable decrease among GEFS members in the last couple runs,
indicating that the higher-end limit will generally be Winter
Weather Advisory criteria but this potential remains low. While
it will be worth monitoring how things may evolve as we enter
into the timeframe for higher resolution model guidance, at this
point it appears that the most likely scenario will be rain
developing over the area late Saturday night with snow mixing in
with rain during the day Sunday, which will likely struggle to
accumulate. Drier air likely moves into the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.
NWS showing a stripe of ZR 
we ain’t done?
rburrel2
Member
I would be feeling good about accumulating snow if I lived anywhere from greenwood,sc to charlotte.
The i85 crew in SC needs help, but we still have hope.
The i85 crew in SC needs help, but we still have hope.
I have a feeling they believe this storm may trend a little more NWNWS showing a stripe of ZR
Idk how those maps are generated any more but at least it’s not showing the predom weather as totally dry or totally rain across the SE
Georgia-centric here.
It's not only the tilt of the shortwave that matters, but it's also timing. Runs that are a bit slower with the 500MB feature have more snow because the 850-surface CAA has time to cool the column where precip is modeled to occur. A very fine line we're riding.
Again, the further SW and more energetic the base of the trough reaches back into Texas and New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, the better the chances for snow further NW and for all of the areas in the game.
Note the much wetter 00z crazy uncle for an example. Wetter, but just a tad too warm for most due to early timing.
It's not only the tilt of the shortwave that matters, but it's also timing. Runs that are a bit slower with the 500MB feature have more snow because the 850-surface CAA has time to cool the column where precip is modeled to occur. A very fine line we're riding.
Again, the further SW and more energetic the base of the trough reaches back into Texas and New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, the better the chances for snow further NW and for all of the areas in the game.
Note the much wetter 00z crazy uncle for an example. Wetter, but just a tad too warm for most due to early timing.
If everything was showing snow and the NAM was showing rain, it would be right. It has a history of doing just fine with thermals and always sniffs out that warm nose. Odd to see it opposite this time, actually gives me a glimmer of hope
I dare you to do it again 
What a huge difference between Euro AI v/s non-AI for the north east. This is inside day 3...
Rooting for the AI model..would be fun to watch the Pats/Texans snow game.
Rooting for the AI model..would be fun to watch the Pats/Texans snow game.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brandon10
Member
If you want more snow, I assume we need to hope this thing slows down to allow the CAA from the mountains to get more involved?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cold air wise, there’s not much we can do here.
Long duration trend on the weathernext snow clown map, ending at 6z today after 0z was the best run yet:
ducketta27
Member
[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] does this thing trend NW to hour 0 from this point forward?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
rburrel2
Member
Hrrr is very close to a heavy snow squall for the western upstate early saturday morning. Models look convective with this frontal band so I wouldn't be shocked to see a burst of heavy snow reach the ground with it.
Yes. This holds true for GA and SC as well. Just a little, I might add.
the AIFS has been Dr. No the whole time though, and still does not show (never has shown) a snow accum map anywhere near the latest wxnext:
long-ish range trend of the EC-AI under the hood follows. Despite + tilt issues it continues to incrementally dig further southwest
For comparison's sake, the OP euro in the same range:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep the 12z HRRR is better, granted still way to the SE. Probably not a bad thing it’s SE of most guidance, especially considering its horrible track record of late
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely am still rather worried that the cold front doesn’t get here in time for the Carolinas and it’s just a cold rain, unless we get adequate moisture into the far western Piedmont/near or NW of 85.
It’s harder to cold advect Saturday night when you’re socked in with clouds and light patchy precip has already started.
It’s harder to cold advect Saturday night when you’re socked in with clouds and light patchy precip has already started.
FFC:
To start the extended periods the models are showing the first
frontal boundary laying across east central and south GA with a
second reinforcing frontal boundary moving into NW GA. The forecast
models are beginning to come into better agreement with how they
expect things to play out Sat night/Sun with this possible winter
system. The models are showing a wave developing along the tail end
of the first frontal boundary over the central Gulf Sat evening. This
wave moves rapidly NE along the boundary bringing precipitation
mainly to central and south GA. We will have some cool air in place
as this wave moves through but with it moving in from a much
further southern location than we were seeing yesterday looks like
we will mainly see a Rain/Snow mix across Central GA turning to all
snow just as its exiting the area from NW to SE. The second front
comes in and helps to push the first front out of the area exiting
the GA coast by 18z Sun to 00z Mon.
As far as impacts go...right now we are looking at light
accumulations if any at all. The best location for accumulations
look to be areas along and south of a Columbus to Forsyth to
Greensboro line. These locations should see 0.25" or less through
Sun afternoon. Temperatures are also expected to get up into the
40s across this same area Sun so any accumulation will not last to
long.
To start the extended periods the models are showing the first
frontal boundary laying across east central and south GA with a
second reinforcing frontal boundary moving into NW GA. The forecast
models are beginning to come into better agreement with how they
expect things to play out Sat night/Sun with this possible winter
system. The models are showing a wave developing along the tail end
of the first frontal boundary over the central Gulf Sat evening. This
wave moves rapidly NE along the boundary bringing precipitation
mainly to central and south GA. We will have some cool air in place
as this wave moves through but with it moving in from a much
further southern location than we were seeing yesterday looks like
we will mainly see a Rain/Snow mix across Central GA turning to all
snow just as its exiting the area from NW to SE. The second front
comes in and helps to push the first front out of the area exiting
the GA coast by 18z Sun to 00z Mon.
As far as impacts go...right now we are looking at light
accumulations if any at all. The best location for accumulations
look to be areas along and south of a Columbus to Forsyth to
Greensboro line. These locations should see 0.25" or less through
Sun afternoon. Temperatures are also expected to get up into the
40s across this same area Sun so any accumulation will not last to
long.