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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Chazwin said:
Looking at the models this morning that have started to trend moisture back to the NW and there is something to note. It appears on all of them that if, and it’s still a big if at this point, enough moisture gets back to locations like CAE, CLT, and RDU the rates do cool the column enough through dynamic cooling to produce predominantly snow. Even the 0z EURO had snow in southeast GA. So right now models appear to be in agreement that the cold will be there east of the mountains. We just got to get the moisture
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Overrunning events tend to get temps stuck in the mountains. Especially when you have an initial shortwave out of the mountains. You would think it would be more favorable for Alabama Georgia Mississippi given that. NW trends overall somewhat indicate that. Just gotta see how much they continue and how far NW.
 
Parker said:
This is pretty good looking right here. I think there will be some surprises today and tomorrow. Clear NW shift on all the models at 06z. Hopefully that can continue at 12z and onward. Still not giving up!
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We sit pretty well where we're both at right now. I hate how it works around here where we always have to pray we're out of precip then after that pray closer to the system for NW ticks. NW ticks here can add up to a large amount in some cases. There are some examples similar to this system, 2017, 2014, etc. today will be the big day and if we keep NW trends today with more sampling it should continue on
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Overrunning events tend to get temps stuck in the mountains. Especially when you have an initial shortwave out of the mountains. You would think it would be more favorable for Alabama Georgia Mississippi given that. NW trends overall somewhat indicate that. Just gotta see how much they continue and how far NW.
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My point for areas east of the mountains is that right now there is strong agreement on modeling that temperatures aloft are supportive of snow provided there is enough moisture to get the rates for dynamic cooling.
 
When you look at QPF right now, it is oddly similar to the looks of 2017. I don't exactly know why euro ticked SE this run while other models likes the NW trend. Friendly reminder though, Euro failed greatly with 2017. Does that mean it will now? Only time can tell.
 
I like these northwest trends for you folks in Georgia, Alabama and the western half of NC/SC. I hope you do well with this storm. It looks like this isn't the storm for us in Raleigh and points east in North Carolina. Unless rates are really heavy, the temperatures will be too warm outside of a few token flakes to end the storm possibly where I live in Wake County it appears. The NAM is the only model showing anything resembling a snow event for the RDU area. I'll say it has been stubborn.
 
weather bubba said:
I like these northwest trends for you folks in Georgia, Alabama and the western half of NC/SC. I hope you do well with this storm. It looks like this isn't the storm for us in Raleigh and points east in North Carolina. Unless rates are really heavy, the temperatures will be too warm outside of a few token flakes to end the storm possibly where I live in Wake County it appears. The NAM is the only model showing anything resembling a snow event for the RDU area. I'll say it has been stubborn.
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Man it would feel good to not get scammed by storms again. Up here in Northeast Georgia we got screwed by both storms last year. Dryslotted badly the 1st one and the snow line in the 2nd one was about 5 miles due south.
 
rburrel2 said:
If this is like 2017, we may not see model corrections on qpf until precip starts breaking out along the gulf coast Saturday evening.
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A possibility, yes. Over runners are extremely hard to forecast but generally it's safe to kinda try going with the NW tick as they try to go as deep into the CAA as they can.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Big difference in satellite forecast on hrr and nam 3k at 6z sunday, Sat night . Also the precip is much heavier and more NW at the same time. However remember it is the 48 hr pn HRR .
View attachment 184121
View attachment 184120
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Say what you will but the HRRR was the first model to sniff out the big FGEN snow back in Jan 2022 that held on much longer than modeled around here.
 
While not too inspiring, it's better than I expected. Columbia NWS

Key Message 1: A rain-snow mix is possible on Sunday but potential
for significant accumulation is low.

The overall synoptic forecast will continue to favor a deepening
trough through the central CONUS with surface low pressure moving
along the coast with overrunning leading to developing precipitation
over the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Trends in the GFS and
GEFS suite have brought it closer in line with EC and EC ensembles
with a more progressive trough. Strongest warm advection and
associated frontogenesis has generally shifted east, although again
this can be a tricky feature to pinpoint as the previous discussion
mentioned. Temperatures continue to appear marginal for accumulating
snow and it is likely that any snow will struggle to accumulate
outside of some stronger banding where snow rates would be able to
overcome marginal surface temperatures. This appears to be less
likely over much of the forecast area as the progged strongest warm
advection has shifted east. Guidance continues to lower the
ceiling of this snow event. Blended guidance probability of 1
inch or greater of snow is around 10-20% across the area, with a
notable decrease among GEFS members in the last couple runs,
indicating that the higher-end limit will generally be Winter
Weather Advisory criteria but this potential remains low. While
it will be worth monitoring how things may evolve as we enter
into the timeframe for higher resolution model guidance, at this
point it appears that the most likely scenario will be rain
developing over the area late Saturday night with snow mixing in
with rain during the day Sunday, which will likely struggle to
accumulate. Drier air likely moves into the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.
 
Georgia-centric here.

It's not only the tilt of the shortwave that matters, but it's also timing. Runs that are a bit slower with the 500MB feature have more snow because the 850-surface CAA has time to cool the column where precip is modeled to occur. A very fine line we're riding.

Again, the further SW and more energetic the base of the trough reaches back into Texas and New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, the better the chances for snow further NW and for all of the areas in the game.

Note the much wetter 00z crazy uncle for an example. Wetter, but just a tad too warm for most due to early timing.
 
weather bubba said:
I like these northwest trends for you folks in Georgia, Alabama and the western half of NC/SC. I hope you do well with this storm. It looks like this isn't the storm for us in Raleigh and points east in North Carolina. Unless rates are really heavy, the temperatures will be too warm outside of a few token flakes to end the storm possibly where I live in Wake County it appears. The NAM is the only model showing anything resembling a snow event for the RDU area. I'll say it has been stubborn.
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If everything was showing snow and the NAM was showing rain, it would be right. It has a history of doing just fine with thermals and always sniffs out that warm nose. Odd to see it opposite this time, actually gives me a glimmer of hope
 
2b0503f2d1e243643791f91a884193a2.png



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jackendrickwx said:
Long duration trend on the weathernext snow clown map, ending at 6z today after 0z was the best run yet:

View attachment 184134
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the AIFS has been Dr. No the whole time though, and still does not show (never has shown) a snow accum map anywhere near the latest wxnext:

1768570403600.png


long-ish range trend of the EC-AI under the hood follows. Despite + tilt issues it continues to incrementally dig further southwest

ec-aifs_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend (1).gif

For comparison's sake, the OP euro in the same range:

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend (1).gif
 
Definitely am still rather worried that the cold front doesn’t get here in time for the Carolinas and it’s just a cold rain, unless we get adequate moisture into the far western Piedmont/near or NW of 85.

It’s harder to cold advect Saturday night when you’re socked in with clouds and light patchy precip has already started.
 
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