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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

NBAcentel said:
AIFS ens making improvement's considering the ens mean was a goose egg 12 hours ago for most View attachment 184098
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That looks very nice over east central GA. Depending on how this actually plays out, I expect to consider an hour or so drive west on I-16 Sun afternoon to the Statesboro/Metter area to see this rare event for that area assuming it ends up too warm to have much affect on the roads.
 
I’ve learned from this thread to listen when the AI euro and other AI models are consistently showing a solution. You can take it to the bank. I doubt we’ll have need for meteorologist in the very near future, of course that will be true for 80% other white collar jobs too.
 
The 0Z Euro suite in SE GA is so much colder than the 0Z GFS suite as of 1PM Sunday (1/18). That tells me that the Euro/GFS may be too cold/warm, but we’ll see! This will largely be dependent on precip rates/clouds then, which are heavier on the Euro suite.

0Z Euro hr 66:
IMG_7153.png

0Z GFS hr 66: ~10 F warmer
IMG_7154.png

The ensemble means show similarly large diffs:

0Z EPS hr 66
IMG_7150.png

0Z GEFS hr 66: 5-10 F warmer
IMG_7151.png
 
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FallsLake said:
6z NAM is back. 3-4” hit from south central Ga to central SC to Charlotte to RDU.
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1f8f8797012bcbc0e290deffad1c06f5.gif



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Way to bring it back fellas. One thing that seems locked in is NeGa and NW SC gonna be bone dry. Thats wild to me given the qpf we usually get when a wave that digs that far down. It's Dec 2017 but worse. Hopefully some of the snowless areas see something..here's to good trends today!
 
I mostly just lurk these days but wanted to chime in and say that it seems with every wide hitting winter storm in the southeast the models tend to lose the storm about 3 days out the. Then once we get within the 72 hour time frame they find it again.

My gut tells me that is sorta what happened yesterday and the latest models trends starting to show more westerly ticks and a little more moisture could be the start of them sniffing the storm back out.

I’m liking where the CLT to Statesville corridor is sitting right now
 
Looking at the models this morning that have started to trend moisture back to the NW and there is something to note. It appears on all of them that if, and it’s still a big if at this point, enough moisture gets back to locations like CAE, CLT, and RDU the rates do cool the column enough through dynamic cooling to produce predominantly snow. Even the 0z EURO had snow in southeast GA. So right now models appear to be in agreement that the cold will be there east of the mountains. We just got to get the moisture
 
I’m glad to see the NW ticks this morning. For many of us, it doesn’t look like we will see a high impact event. Mostly snow in the air that doesn’t amount to much on the ground. Works for me. We also need to help out the drought conditions, so I guess I won’t complain too much if I get cold rain or warm snow.

Have a great day of model watching and discussion everyone!
 
Excited to at least see some snow fly in the air here in KCLT. I am pleasantly surprised at my PWS sitting at 15.8F currently. Working those ground temps down
 
Oconeexman said:
Way to bring it back fellas. One thing that seems locked in is NeGa and NW SC gonna be bone dry. Thats wild to me given the qpf we usually get when a wave that digs that far down. It's Dec 2017 but worse. Hopefully some of the snowless areas see something..here's to good trends today!
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Webb said this would come NW. I believe this is the start. It isn't done yet. He also said that it would be too warm for most. This might turn out to be a mtn and foothills paste job.
 
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Update from NWS Raleigh, the timestamp at the top right is from yesterday, but the graphs are from 2:16am this morning.


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KILM Morning AFD.. (Wilmington.NC)
1:30 AM this Morning..

KEY MESSAGE 4: Light wintry precipitation with minor accumulations
possible Sunday into Sunday night. At the very least, water
freezing on roadways could lead to hazardous travel conditions
Sunday night.

**Rates will overcome,, "cooling the Column"??

AND..

An arctic cold front is expected to approach from the west Saturday
night before likely moving through Sunday, although still some
uncertainty regarding exactly when. Meanwhile, moisture will be
increasing across the region ahead of an approaching upper
trough. Rain will likely start late Saturday night, although
should stay too warm for any frozen precipitation. However,
during the day Sunday temperatures could start falling inland
(especially aloft) depending on the timing of the trough aloft
and surface cold frontal passage, which will lead to a bit
better risk for some snow to mix in with or even take over as
the predominant precip type. However, moisture levels will also
be diminishing from west to east so the timing of deeper
moisture along with the sufficiently cold air will be crucial to
whether we see any measurable snowfall and/or any other types
of frozen precip. If the deeper moisture departs but there is
still some shallow moisture around we could see some freezing
rain/drizzle on the backside of the precip shield Sun eve,
mainly near the coast. The 01Z NBM still shows a moderate risk
for measurable snow (0.1" or greater) across much of SE NC and
NE SC with the greatest chance near the NC Sandhills. The latest
GFS ensembles continue to back off the risk for at least 1" of
snow (<20%). In any event, any wet roadways by late Sunday will
likely re-freeze Sunday night as temps should fall below
freezing most places, so black ice could make travel hazardous
into Monday morning (especially inland). Everyone is encouraged
to pay close attention to the forecast for early next week,
especially if they have travels plans.

Note: The last widespread measurable snow across our area was
January 21-22, 2025.
 
This setup is complicated and is one where a small tick can change a lot. Today is really the big day as we start getting more data sampling. Let's hope for the best here. Euro 06z although a slight tick south still looks interesting as progression continues to trend slowed. RAP shows verga precip extending into north Georgia, perhaps that could be a sign? No telling
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the models this morning that have started to trend moisture back to the NW and there is something to note. It appears on all of them that if, and it’s still a big if at this point, enough moisture gets back to locations like CAE, CLT, and RDU the rates do cool the column enough through dynamic cooling to produce predominantly snow. Even the 0z EURO had snow in southeast GA. So right now models appear to be in agreement that the cold will be there east of the mountains. We just got to get the moisture
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To build further on this, I’ve been looking at soundings from different models for my location and to areas to the east. Wet bulb temperatures are all in the 29-32 range with column solidly below freezing. So again, there is good model agreement on the cold being there.
 
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