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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

NBAcentel said:
AIFS ens making improvement's considering the ens mean was a goose egg 12 hours ago for most View attachment 184098
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That looks very nice over east central GA. Depending on how this actually plays out, I expect to consider an hour or so drive west on I-16 Sun afternoon to the Statesboro/Metter area to see this rare event for that area assuming it ends up too warm to have much affect on the roads.
 
I’ve learned from this thread to listen when the AI euro and other AI models are consistently showing a solution. You can take it to the bank. I doubt we’ll have need for meteorologist in the very near future, of course that will be true for 80% other white collar jobs too.
 
The 0Z Euro suite in SE GA is so much colder than the 0Z GFS suite as of 1PM Sunday (1/18). That tells me that the Euro/GFS may be too cold/warm, but we’ll see! This will largely be dependent on precip rates/clouds then, which are heavier on the Euro suite.

0Z Euro hr 66:
IMG_7153.png

0Z GFS hr 66: ~10 F warmer
IMG_7154.png

The ensemble means show similarly large diffs:

0Z EPS hr 66
IMG_7150.png

0Z GEFS hr 66: 5-10 F warmer
IMG_7151.png
 
Last edited:
FallsLake said:
6z NAM is back. 3-4” hit from south central Ga to central SC to Charlotte to RDU.
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1f8f8797012bcbc0e290deffad1c06f5.gif



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