Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

View attachment 183539

Rufus is also in range for Sunday morning.

RRFS with essentially a near copy paste of 12/8/2017. WAA may be less of a problem just because of how strong the front is coming in at least for north georgia.

 

[xshare]

Got couple screens before that?

 

[anc.py]

Got couple screens before that?

 

[iGRXY]

This GFS run will be more amped.

 

[anc.py]

Oh damn.

 

[iGRXY]

Big time

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Now, can we turn this ship on time?

 

[Bigedd09]

Solid snow in the Deep South. Idk how I feel about the Carolina’s

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[anc.py]

 

[iGRXY]

It’s just getting going

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 183542

Wow, I've never looked at this model before. It could be my new love!

 

[TheBatman]

Solid snow in the Deep South. Idk how I feel about the Carolina’s

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Well dang, it does put snow for Northern and Centeal Alabama. Afraid it’s being too over amped through.
So close.

 

[iGRXY]

Ooooowwwweeeeee

 

[Goose88]

The GFS won't back down I see I hope the Euro shows signs of caving tonight

 

[Stormdoc]

0z GFS .. further west again. Similar to NAM

Looks to me like the energy is digging further south

 

[UNCSC]

If those rates actually come to fruition to what the GFS is showing, at least some people in this group are gonna get buried

 

[xshare]

Shows like 8 inches Kuchera in parts of Central Bama.

 

[anc.py]

IVT prior to the snowstorm is higher than prior model runs. Jesus.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

OK. All set, that's enough NW trend.

 

[NCwx1992]

beautiful. now lets chill on the NW trend for now

 

[SnowmasterATL]

OK. All set, that's enough NW trend.View attachment 183556

I think it is tooo amped.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[TheBatman]

Just wonder how much further North and West this is going to come 3 1/2 to 4 days out???

Definitely has me interested. Just don’t want to get sucked in.

 

[TheBatman]

IVT prior to the snowstorm is higher than prior model runs. Jesus.
View attachment 183554

What is IVT?

 

[iGRXY]

I’ll be honest, it’s probably underdone. But it’s going to be a tight rope between cold air and WAA driven precipitation. You could already see how far the rain snow line came NW

 

[GaWx]

Well dang, it does put snow for Northern and Centeal Alabama. Afraid it’s being too over amped through.
So close.

And still 3 more days to go for more NW trend, No telling where it will stop. It’s not really a trend of Mother Nature, but rather it’s the models being off (too far SE) and correcting themselves. In other words, the storm track is always predetermined, but the models aren’t smart enough due to a SE track bias to know the reality of what’s really to happen.

 

[NCwx1992]

View attachment 183558View attachment 183561

qpf went crazy this run

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

 

[RBR71]

Bullseye slowly shifting NW lol.

 

[KyloG]

Atlantic ridge is going to shove this to Memphis

What a sick run…

 

[anc.py]

What is IVT?

Integrated Vapor Transport!

Practically it indicates the measure of moisture/water that is moving through (I think?) an entire column of the atmosphere.

 

[UNCSC]

We really need the euro to stay suppressed, this is about to be in eastern Arkansas by the time it gets here

 

[iGRXY]

 

[RBR71]

GFS doing GFS things, too amped and probably wrong as usual. Euro might come back NW some tonight but I highly doubt it will be this extreme. Remember it's been holding steady east, good middle of the road dance going on hopefully

 

[SimeonNC]

The GFS is actually really, really concerning to me. I don't like how far NW the rain/snow line is at this point knowing what's probably gonna happen with future runs.

 

[Stormdoc]

View attachment 183555
Just wonder how much further North and West this is going to come 3 1/2 to 4 days out???

Definitely has me interested. Just don’t want to get sucked in.

This is turning into a negative tilted Miller A, not overrunning at all. Low starts bombing off the coast.

 

[HailCore]

And still 3 more days to go for more NW trend, No telling where it will stop. It’s not really a trend of Mother Nature, but rather it’s the models being off (too far SE) and correcting themselves. In other words, the storm track is always predetermined, but the models aren’t smart enough due to a SE track bias to know the reality of what’s really to happen.

What do you think is a reasonable worst-case scenario for where the rain/snow line could end up if everything kept trending west up until the event as seen in past events?

 

[BKWRN29]

Bullseye slowly shifting NW lol.

View attachment 183564

I am in the bama bullseye I’m scared to see what the next few days hold

 

[iGRXY]

I tried to tell yall lol. You start cranking the SER like it’s showing, the precip isn’t the issue. It’ll be temps. That Rain/Snow line is surging NW each run. I feel like 85 north will be safe, but everyone south of that needs to hope this slows down quickly

 

[accu35]

GFS doing GFS things, too amped and probably wrong as usual. Euro might come back NW some tonight but I highly doubt it will be this extreme. Remember it's been holding steady east, good middle of the road dance going on hopefully

Your right, GFS maybe to amped and euro could come little more NW. overall I think a good southern snow is very much in play