trackersacker
Member
Extreme NE TN?
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
dsaur
Member
That shot on Sat could put some pellets or flurries into N. Ga. I like these patterns, makes winter fun, even if we die on the cliff most of the time. I've seen this kind of scenario happen a number of times since I've been down here and some are really good if you are in the sweet spot and get some good training. A hundred mile band thru central Ga, or lower.
A bad ice storm down the line, if that can be believed. These shots we get are fleeting, and it makes it so satisfying to land on of these suckers. Just not the zr storm. Sleet is so much better!
A bad ice storm down the line, if that can be believed. These shots we get are fleeting, and it makes it so satisfying to land on of these suckers. Just not the zr storm. Sleet is so much better!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mentioned this earlier in here but it’s positive feedbacks between WAA and wave tilt which can runaway in a setup like this when you don’t have much in the background to suppress it. This setup looks more like Feb 2020 & Dec 2017 than last year
We just need the moisture along the escarpment. Temps aloft will cool if the precip is there.
Absolutely nothing in Georgia.
The Carolinas are going to do well this run. Another step towards what AI models have had for a couple of days.
broken025
Member
Looks good up this way still
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
One thing about the timeframe we're at. Globals are not great at this range. I'd be personally watching shorter range guidance and ensembles more now rather than operational on global models.
Bigedd09
Member
Yeah GFS is rough but it’s not really prime range for GFS
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HailCore
Member
Even with globals, the storm is still there for NW trend. But yes, it boils down to short range at this point.
Spot the outlier:
And also, does 18z really ingest any newer atmospheric data at all?
Honestly kind of glad to see the GFS come more in line with some of the AI models. Would like to see the Euro come a little closer to the pack coming up here and maybe we can actually have somewhere to work from versus everything just bouncing all over the place.
Final 18z GFS map.
ChattaVOL
Member
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Sizable SE shift on the AIGFS, otherwise remarkably consistent. 
For the Carolinas, I do like to see this earlier finger of overrunning coming in during the early morning hours prior to diurnal heating. Earlier onset is typical of overrunning, and should hopefully help keep the column colder as the storm progresses.
Noles1812
Member
So we want the green line down here. Id like it over the gulf if I could.
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I am confused by their low pressure tracks.
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ChattaVOL
Member
I am confused by their low pressure tracks.
Same.
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ai victory
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even a near ideal timing and track on the gfs still leads to a super marginal event in NC. The low level thermos are just awful.
Just need to stop the bleeding soon before the inevitable NW push. Might have another cycle or two to go before that happens though. Really can’t afford to give much more ground away in the next 12 hours
LittleMountain
Member
The foothills/WNC are the place where it’s cold enough but all the models show no moisture making it here now
Bigedd09
Member
There’s barely any QPF to even work with on that GFS run
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That is definitely a valid concern here.
In places like RDU and CLT, it just may not be cold enough period.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Do you think WAA is being greatly underdone?
Let's wait till Saturday morning to jump cliff. To many variables need to be figured out for the foothill crew. Hi res will let the way starting soon.
If I were a betting man, and I am, I’d wager 00z GFS will be a tick worse. That’s when you wanna buy the dip. Tomorrow will be the comeback story. But will it be enough? Stay tuned
True. But to say that the 18Z wasn't concerning is an understatement. Seeing the base of the longwave trough not extending as far SW into New Mexico stinks. To we 00Z we go.
Faster, eastward tick. Doesn't look too consolidated at the moment either and just looks like a dogleg.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the wave speeds up like the GEFS and GFS show at 18z, great you have an eastward shift in precip, and more of your precip occurs in the morning hours in NC so that’s nice. Oth, you might be outrunning your Arctic front and cold air even more. Just so hard to win with this
GFS won't be as relevant tomorrow as we'll be inside 48hrs. By then pay more attention to the hi res stuff.
Yikes. Just yikes.