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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Definitely more of a flatter suppressive look on the 6z gfs more similar to euro. We’ll see what the Ensembles do


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I still think there’s going to be a more expansive precip shield on the NW side of this. There always is with overrunning. We aren’t in the short range models wheelhouse yet. That’s another 24-48 hours from now. I think you’ll see that moisture isn’t going to be the issue with this storm. It will continue to be the temps.
 
06z GEFS run
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Many flat runs in there. Definitely rid of all the bangers it was showing at 0z. Euro is king for a reason


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Bigedd09 said:
Many flat runs in there. Definitely rid of all the bangers it was showing at 0z. Euro is king for a reason


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Click to expand...
Honestly though I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the 6z EURO to come in closer to what the GFS just put out. How often is it at the of the day, the outcome ends up being closer to the middle ground of all modeling?
 
Chazwin said:
Honestly though I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the 6z EURO to come in closer to what the GFS just put out. How often is it at the of the day, the outcome ends up being closer to the middle ground of all modeling?
Click to expand...

I definitely agree with that. It wouldn’t fully surprise me if models honed in on what the UKMET was spitting out the other day


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GSP discussion early Thursday AM

Key message 4: We continue to monitor the evolution of model
guidance for Saturday night and Sunday with some interest, given
the consistent GFS depiction of snow potential, but a lack of
consistency between models keeps confidence low.

In the wake of the first wave, the upper trof axis will deepen
Saturday to our west as a much stronger wave dives down to amplify
the trof, which is a development that guidance can agree with. The
resulting SW flow aloft Saturday should allow temps to get back to
normal, but this will be short-lived as the approaching short wave
swings the upper trof axis eastward Saturday night. That`s when
things get interesting if you prefer the GFS, which has shown some
decent consistency over the past 24 hours with developing a stripe
of precip across the Carolinas in response to greatly improving
deep layer forcing and frontogenesis ahead of a dynamic-looking
short wave sweeping across the Southeast. The GFS would have the
cold air coming over the mtns Saturday night coincident with the
development of precip spreading northeast across the region. What
is interesting is that the operational run has considerable support
from the GFS ensemble with having snow across at least the area
east of the mtns to the point where the ensemble mean would be
pushing warning criteria, but this could be another example of the
ensemble not being dispersive enough. Meanwhile, the operational
Canadian has most of its precip just to our east with much less
support from its ensemble, with only two or three members giving
snow over our east. We await the new ECMWF ensemble, but that model
has been much less enthusiastic for our winter weather prospects and
has consistently had the precip along the coast or offshore. So,
as enticing as the GFS/GEFS looks, caution is advised to manage
expectations because confidence will remain low until more support
is garnered from the other model ensembles. Officially, the model
blend has slowly moved in the direction of including some precip
chances over our southeastern fringe for Sunday morning, falling
as some combo of rain and snow. The precip should move out during
the middle of the day. Either way, temps will cool off back to
ten degrees below normal with clouds and a northeast wind.
 
Comparing the GFS and GEFS and the euro surface right now is still wide left and wide right. The euro barely gets moisture past I95. You can clearly see the GFS and the GEFS are much further west even with less amplification at 6Z
 
Columbia Thursday AM discussion

Key Message 3: Potential for winter weather Sunday as a coastal
low develops. Significant uncertainty remains.

Winter weather potential continues to be highlighted for Sunday but
significant uncertainty remains in the specifics. We can be
relatively confident in the overall synoptic pattern early in the
weekend with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. Models continue
to show high confidence in a highly amplified digging trough into
the Mississippi Valley Saturday into Saturday night with the NAEFS
mean indicating that 500mb heights will be below the first
percentile. The progression of this trough and when it stops digging
south and moves towards our area will be pivotal in the winter
weather potential. Blended guidance favors temperatures in the upper
50s and low 60s Saturday with a much colder air mass moving into the
Southern Plains. As this air mass moves towards the area, cold
advection will strengthen into Saturday night. Forecast soundings
favor wet bulb temperatures near freezing through a layer extending
to about 5000 feet. This creates significant uncertainty as a
coastal low develops Sunday and increased moisture in southwest flow
leads to developing, potentially mixed, precipitation. NBM
probabilities of measurable snow (0.1" or greater) are between
40 to 50 percent throughout the area, a slight increase from the
afternoon forecast package. The Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index indicates around a 20-30% chance of minor
impacts in the forecast area.
 
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