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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

I know FFC is shaking in their boots after that Euro run. Catastrophic level winter storm for all of N GA if that verified.
I will say after that euro run they're likely going to increase their confidence slightly. While fluctuations will happen this seems to be a really good situation for us unless it goes way north.
 
Spann....maybe he spoke too soon :]

SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: I always try and cut through the noise and keep it real here, as you know. Let's get right to the weekend.
A disturbance will bring rain to the state, most likely Saturday night and Sunday morning.
You will see deterministic model output from the American global model (the GFS) all over social media this morning, showing a "snow storm" for North Alabama.
What you won't see all over social media is output from the reliable European global model, which shows mostly a cold rain with only a few snow flakes.
 
Spann....maybe he spoke too soon :]

SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: I always try and cut through the noise and keep it real here, as you know. Let's get right to the weekend.
A disturbance will bring rain to the state, most likely Saturday night and Sunday morning.
You will see deterministic model output from the American global model (the GFS) all over social media this morning, showing a "snow storm" for North Alabama.
What you won't see all over social media is output from the reliable European global model, which shows mostly a cold rain with only a few snow flakes.
He is notoriously bad at winter weather, severe is a different story.
 
We just can't win in Charlotte. It was looking like this one was for us now Atlanta has it :rolleyes:
What model are you looking at? This has the making a historic storm for a lot of people on this board. Like I said before focusing on these clown maps this far is out not the right way to go about predicting the final solution.
 
Less amp solution=weaker low=less warm nose =more snow
I feel like a trend towards a weaker low is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).
 
850mb low and temperatures on Euro

4z2sMwz.gif
 
I feel like a trend towards a weaker is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).
Down yall's way, i doubt you're going to get out of the freezing rain. That warm nose is stout at 850.
 
That would be our version of what Texas got last year. Especially with the pattern we look to be in for the next two weeks.

It’s a quandary for them. I suspect they project extreme uncertainty and hedge on the GFS. They tend to gravitate to the most conservative model.


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EPS will be telling on where things stand right now. I doubt any you will see any crazy reactions from any NWS office today. We're still basically 5 days out since it has slowed down.
 
There is some indication that the storm's forward speed may slow substantially while it pivots across the Southeast this weekend. This deceleration might allow the storm to gain strength and pull in more moisture, which could result in a moderate or heavy wintry precipitation event.

"If all of the pieces come together perfectly on Sunday, snowfall amounts could exceed a foot from northern Georgia through portions of the Carolinas and southern Virginia as the storm strengthens," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
 
The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol
Absolutely can with that low track. If it's close to you, it will warm up. Sometimes CAD holds on longer if the HP is depicted as modeled. Still lots to sort out with that kind of detail.
 
I feel like a trend towards a weaker low is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).
It would be great if we could get a solution like the 12z UKMET today or 0z CMC from last night. If we could get it into the Gulf or Panhandle area and keep it from cutting inland, that'd be awesome. Too much amping and it's introducing warm air, that is hurting us. Hopefully we get a better solution on future runs, esp. once it enters the US and we get better data.
 
The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol
No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold
 
No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold
Exactly. Took the words right out of my mouth. We know if we get the precip falling when temps are that cold, it's going to stay COLD thorough the duration of the event. Been through wayyyy too many CAD setups to fall for things warming up like some models tend to depict.
 
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