griteater
Member
No model stands on its own anymore like the Euro used to. Best just to follow the discussion in here and take a blend of them all
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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StormWatch
Member
I just took a quick look, it's slightly further south and the 850s are colder. Overall though, it's basically the same as the 0z GFS, at least at the surface.
I 
The 50/50 low 
The 50/50 low iGRXY
Member
Few things to remember. Models underestimate normal CAD events, this is shaping to be a super CAD with temps at the surface in the mid 20’s and the column running from the mid to upper 20’s. These more amped runs are actually going to be favorable. With the potential of that much cold air we need a strong ULL and surface low because I’ll bet my house that you’re not going to see a major north trend IF we keep the TPV look we have now. This has everyone south of 40 getting hammered in the western sections of the state.
This 50/50 low is just a game changer. This might as well be a west based -NAO.
I know we all are focusing on the snow amounts. Let's also keep in mind the mixing and Ice issue that someone will get hit hard.
Does anyone have a link that shows model verification accuracy?
Look at that big ridge nudging west into the southern tip of Greenland shoving those 850’s south. Wild
griteater
Member
Check out this link:
Tornadocane
Member
Yeah. What happened was that the good trends out SW were off set by the trends to the NE with the 50/50 low positioning further SE over Novo Scotia. This drives our system further to the South so heights build over the low instead of ahead of it. It keeps the northern branch energy over Central Canada and the Great Lakes, because it's being blocked to it's SE, and kept separated from our bowling bowl low.
I already like this euro run more the energy is already farther away from that shredder in the pacific 
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9 times out of 10... theses Temps are still too warm...knock off 3 to 5 degrees!!!
That happened in the March 2009 storm. Not certain about Dalton specifically, but MBY got hammered while areas just to my north got rained on. This storm is similar although I don't recall much of a wedge with that system.
iGRXY
Member
Euro looks like it is able to follow the trend. Energy looks much better.
all round better more TPV, better energy, more disconnection from the pacific cutoff, this is gonna be a fun run 
iGRXY
Member
I like this a lot
griteater
Member
Well the Euro is definitely going to hit areas of the SE, just a matter of where
@Meteorologist1999 special inbound