Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[LovingGulfLows]

I know FFC is shaking in their boots after that Euro run. Catastrophic level winter storm for all of N GA if that verified.

 

[SimeonNC]

I don't buy RDU switching over to just rain. With a CAD high that strong the CAD should hold on longer imo.

 

[bigstick10]

Thinking about heading to Avery county to chase -- does that seem like the right spot?

Looks like ATL might be the bullseye.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I know FFC is shaking in their boots after that Euro run. Catastrophic level winter storm for all of N GA if that verified.

I will say after that euro run they're likely going to increase their confidence slightly. While fluctuations will happen this seems to be a really good situation for us unless it goes way north.

 

[Parker]

Very big EPS run coming up. It has grown more bullish for the I-20 crowd the last few cycles. Hopefully it supports that OP run in a big way.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

That would a horrible ice storm for the Midlands. What would it take to trend this more towards sleet along the I-20 corrdiors areas in SC and eastern GA?

Less amp solution=weaker low=less warm nose =more snow

 

[PARSONBROWN]

Spann....maybe he spoke too soon :]

SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: I always try and cut through the noise and keep it real here, as you know. Let's get right to the weekend.
A disturbance will bring rain to the state, most likely Saturday night and Sunday morning.
You will see deterministic model output from the American global model (the GFS) all over social media this morning, showing a "snow storm" for North Alabama.
What you won't see all over social media is output from the reliable European global model, which shows mostly a cold rain with only a few snow flakes.

 

[TheBatman]

Very big EPS run coming up. It has grown more bullish for the I-20 crowd the last few cycles. Hopefully it supports that OP run in a big way.

GFS has been trending that way also. This is a good range on the models to start reeling this in.

 

[bigstick10]

Spann....maybe he spoke too soon :]

SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: I always try and cut through the noise and keep it real here, as you know. Let's get right to the weekend.
A disturbance will bring rain to the state, most likely Saturday night and Sunday morning.
You will see deterministic model output from the American global model (the GFS) all over social media this morning, showing a "snow storm" for North Alabama.
What you won't see all over social media is output from the reliable European global model, which shows mostly a cold rain with only a few snow flakes.

He is notoriously bad at winter weather, severe is a different story.

 

[ryan1234]

We just can't win in Charlotte. It was looking like this one was for us now Atlanta has it

What model are you looking at? This has the making a historic storm for a lot of people on this board. Like I said before focusing on these clown maps this far is out not the right way to go about predicting the final solution.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I know FFC is shaking in their boots after that Euro run. Catastrophic level winter storm for all of N GA if that verified.

That would be our version of what Texas got last year. Especially with the pattern we look to be in for the next two weeks.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Could this finally be the time that Atlanta gets their first 6" snowfall in 39 years ?

 

[Heelyes]

Years of living here tells all snow is unlikely but would be one of the biggest ever if it was

 

[Rosie]

Truthfully this solution would be devastating better have get the chimneys, firewood, generators and portable stoves ready to go

Had a whole house generator installed last year and propane is full?

 

[Faco Thomas]

Less amp solution=weaker low=less warm nose =more snow

I feel like a trend towards a weaker low is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).

 

[SimeonNC]

The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol

 

[griteater]

850mb low and temperatures on Euro

 

[iGRXY]

I feel like a trend towards a weaker is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).

Down yall's way, i doubt you're going to get out of the freezing rain. That warm nose is stout at 850.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Could this finally be the time that Atlanta gets their first 6" snowfall in 39 years ?

ATL Airport is clearly overdue for a big snow(6+ inches)....this might be the one in 40 year storm. It's currently in the 2nd longest snow drought on record.

 

[ATLwxfan]

That would be our version of what Texas got last year. Especially with the pattern we look to be in for the next two weeks.

It’s a quandary for them. I suspect they project extreme uncertainty and hedge on the GFS. They tend to gravitate to the most conservative model.


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[wxdaniel]

850mb low and temperatures on Euro

The system is bringing up warm air from the Atlantic. During the transition phase


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[Jrips2710]

EPS will be telling on where things stand right now. I doubt any you will see any crazy reactions from any NWS office today. We're still basically 5 days out since it has slowed down.

 

[Flotown]

I wouldn't say he is bad he's just a realist.James just doesn't like to hype up something until there is more data supporting it.Having said that if models keep this up he will change his tune some this afternoon and definitely tomorrow..if models keep trending this way.

 

[Hypsometric]

If this more amped/slowing trend continues, there may be a new player on the field to contend with soon in the way of that next northern stream wave...

 

[BelmontWX79]

Here is the FRAM estamated ice actual from the EURO!

 

[Pup12]

He is notoriously bad at winter weather, severe is a different story.

I take him with a grain of salt when he starts talking winter weather. Just glad to see north Alabama getting in on the fun again

 

[griteater]

High pressure and damming on the Euro

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS not surprisingly following the 12Z operational trend of a stronger wedge.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

There is some indication that the storm's forward speed may slow substantially while it pivots across the Southeast this weekend. This deceleration might allow the storm to gain strength and pull in more moisture, which could result in a moderate or heavy wintry precipitation event.

"If all of the pieces come together perfectly on Sunday, snowfall amounts could exceed a foot from northern Georgia through portions of the Carolinas and southern Virginia as the storm strengthens," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/snowstorm-likely-to-take-southern-detour-after-burying-midwest/1123882

 

[packfan98]

The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol

Absolutely can with that low track. If it's close to you, it will warm up. Sometimes CAD holds on longer if the HP is depicted as modeled. Still lots to sort out with that kind of detail.

 

[GaWx]

Stronger wedge 12Z EPS vs 0Z

 

[iGRXY]

EPS coming in likely more amped with the trough digging further SW as well.

 

[GaWx]

Much more snow, too:

 

[DLI4SCwx]

I feel like a trend towards a weaker low is unlikely at this point. The Models are consistently trending towards a more amped wave with the engery in the SW with each and every run. I think the best we can hope for barring a miracle is that there's more sleet involed and less freezing rain as we get closer(like February 2014).

It would be great if we could get a solution like the 12z UKMET today or 0z CMC from last night. If we could get it into the Gulf or Panhandle area and keep it from cutting inland, that'd be awesome. Too much amping and it's introducing warm air, that is hurting us. Hopefully we get a better solution on future runs, esp. once it enters the US and we get better data.

 

[Jrips2710]

Hot sweats

 

[Chazwin]

The Euro literally has the CLT area go from the around 24 degrees at noon to 35 degrees by midnight. Does anyone actually buy that? lol

No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold

 

[iGRXY]

The Mean is about to be nuts here shortly in the western carolinas and northern georgia.

 

[Jrips2710]

Someone is going to get three feet on a NAM run on Thursday lol. Calling it now

 

[wxdaniel]

The Mean is about to be nuts here shortly in the western carolinas and northern georgia.

EPS?


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[ryan1234]

No I don’t, but I also know that the Euro has a tendency of pushing out CAD way too quickly. One thing that does look to be the case here is that of a very strong and cold CAD. All of the models are putting temperatures throughout the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate in the low to mid 20s when precip starts. Been awhile since we had a storm that cold

Exactly. Took the words right out of my mouth. We know if we get the precip falling when temps are that cold, it's going to stay COLD thorough the duration of the event. Been through wayyyy too many CAD setups to fall for things warming up like some models tend to depict.