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Pattern Jammin' January

Question. How reliable can the GEFS be if, say, one of the variables it’s changing is a big one. Maybe only a handful of the individual members are taking into account the actual MJO phase we will be in? Maybe the operational has it pegged and the Ensembles are muted because of a bad algorithm?
 
Stormlover said:
Sorry, but when someone posts the window closes and then claims they were only talking about 3 days, since February wasn't included, it had to be called out. Back on topic.....
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Sorry I offended anyone just trying to discuss the pattern. Every day of the month counts however should have worded it differently


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Storm5 said:
12z gefs to no surprise looks nothing like the gfs OP for those buying into every single LR run . Gefs vs gfs
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your correct but one is going to have to cave to the other because there are night and day differences
 
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FWIW, fv3 starting to pick up on 23/24 idea like the CMC and GFS.
 
Kylo said:
The ridging shifting to the Aleutian’s has been shown and supported by MJO. All anyone saw was the PV dropping into the lakes. The PV will drop down, only took 17 cutters to yank it down. Question is how much lag will phase 5-6 have on the pattern as we start Feb. The end of the GEFS is already showing the trough pulling back west, which makes sense. I personally think it will be closer to 2nd week of Feb until we get into a legit favored pattern.

Only speaking for NC, Al/TX may do well with what is coming up.
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The PV is already sitting in central Canada, it'll retreat and later return due largely to one storm around January 25-26. It's not as simple as phase 5-6 MJO + lag = warmth or unfavorable pattern in "x" period. This MJO event is/will be considerably different than the last one as I and HM discussed at length at least a week or so ago. A legit favored pattern is showing up after Jan 26 and into the beginning of February. Anything after that is speculative but this run of the GEFS clearly didn't shift the trough back into the Rockies anywhere near as much as the 6z suite and that makes sense given the -EPO/-WPO.
 
There’s many factors going against the MJO but the MJO even at low amplitude can still have a influence, but this time it’s gonna likely just be that annoying neighbor
 
Kylo said:
The ridging shifting to the Aleutian’s has been shown and supported by MJO. All anyone saw was the PV dropping into the lakes. The PV will drop down, only took 17 cutters to yank it down. Question is how much lag will phase 5-6 have on the pattern as we start Feb. The end of the GEFS is already showing the trough pulling back west, which makes sense. I personally think it will be closer to 2nd week of Feb until we get into a legit favored pattern.

Only speaking for NC, Al/TX may do well with what is coming up.
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Yeah, I’m not entirely sure when the PNA will cooperate, but I think it’s sooner than week two. We’ll see. My focus is on the first week for now.


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Webberweather53 said:
The PV is already sitting in central Canada, it'll retreat and later return due largely to one storm around January 25-26. It's not as simple as phase 5-6 MJO + lag = warmth or unfavorable pattern in "x" period. This MJO event is/will be considerably different than the last one as I and HM discussed at length at least a week or so ago. A legit favored pattern is showing up after Jan 26 and into the beginning of February. Anything after that is speculative but this run of the GEFS clearly didn't shift the trough back into the Rockies anywhere near as much as the 6z suite and that makes sense given the -EPO/-WPO.
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The GEFS has also been trash in the LR, let’s not forget that

Edit: I hit send post before I was done, but there’s no reason atm to write off say Jan 27 onward, especially first week of February. I stopped looking at the mjo phase charts honestly.


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Jon said:
The GEFS has also been trash in the LR, let’s not forget that

Edit: I hit send post before I was done, but there’s no reason atm to write off say Jan 27 onward, especially first week of February. I stopped looking at the mjo phase charts honestly.


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Btw, I rarely look at MJO phase charts except as a way to track how models are verifying thru "x" date and during events with extreme amplitude. It's better to use hovmollers and maps from Ventrice, Carl Schreck, and Paul Roundy as well as JMA's plots, it provides far more information than the RMM diagram.
 
Jon said:
The GEFS has also been trash in the LR, let’s not forget that

Edit: I hit send post before I was done, but there’s no reason atm to write off say Jan 27 onward, especially first week of February. I stopped looking at the mjo phase charts honestly.


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Exactly, hence my point about the run-to-run changes between the 6z & 12z suites. Pacific blocking teleconnections, tropical forcing, and precedent in addition to low frequency interannual variability favors the trough sticking around at least for a little while longer closer to the base of the Hudson Bay and the Lakes instead of the Rockies in that timeframe.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The PV is already sitting in central Canada, it'll retreat and later return due largely to one storm around January 25-26. It's not as simple as phase 5-6 MJO + lag = warmth or unfavorable pattern in "x" period. This MJO event is/will be considerably different than the last one as I and HM discussed at length at least a week or so ago. A legit favored pattern is showing up after Jan 26 and into the beginning of February. Anything after that is speculative but this run of the GEFS clearly didn't shift the trough back into the Rockies anywhere near as much as the 6z suite and that makes sense given the -EPO/-WPO.
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There's also this, which we certainly didn't have during the last MJO episode, and is a big part of why the ensembles have been ringing the bell for more high latitude blocking during the upcoming period.

 
Jessy89 said:
Sorry I offended anyone just trying to discuss the pattern. Every day of the month counts however should have worded it differently


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If you're taking each model run at "face value" beyond 5-7 days, I would recommend not doing so. That goes for anyone else that does as well. I'm just saying, it's not a good practice. The pro's can even tell you that. Models aren't a forecast.
 
1300m said:
There's also this, which we certainly didn't have during the last MJO episode, and is a big part of why the ensembles have been ringing the bell for more high latitude blocking during the upcoming period.

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Yep, the GFS suite also tends to under-represent downward propagation of circulation anomalies from the stratosphere during SSWEs making this forecast just that much more intriguing.
 
Any possible negative influence from the MJO will be gone within 10 days. It like any other index should be considered in the mix. Otherwise, why even follow it?
When I say possible negative influence from, say 4-5, it could mean slightly colder than normal vs much below normal or near normal instead of below or just less sustained below vs more sustained below.
Also, the amp/duration is important. This won't be as long or as strong an amp, but it isn't low amp either. More like low end moderate (1.5ish at peak).
 
Anything past 4-5 days out I wouldn't trust any OP solution right now. There is so much chaos in the atmosphere with all the energy flying around and each storm system affects the one behind it depending on how much it amps up. The 23-25th system is looking a bit interesting with what the CMC has shown and some GEFS members.
 
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