I seriously doubt the MJO is having that much influence considering it would be in the COD by then. I'm sure others can chime in on this as well.
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dsaur
Member
Nothing more Ga. winter than cold chasing rain...unless it's rain chasing cold. Or.....maybe cold with no rain....or, rain with no cold. That's pretty much a southern winter in a nut shell...except for the occasional meeting of the two which messes the averages all up, lol.
Jessy89
Member
We need a thread soon for February. I’m only speaking of January right now. Fab feb could be fun
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Jon
Member
The pattern is (has) changed. It’s going to be cold to end January as we were mentioning the first week of January.
This pattern isn’t working out for snow in the SE likely due to the orientation of the ridging and no block or heigh to keep storms south. The systems are too progressive and can’t go neutral tilt.
Weeklies were off on the ridge, showing a stout +PNA for Jan 20-28, when in reality it’s off the coast which doesn’t allow the trough to be in a favorable position. In order to have storms in the SE in the CURRENT depicted pattern, we need blocking.
The hype was justified, but no one could have predicted the ridging hiccup. Still, -EPO means cold, and cutting storms mean a increase in snow pack for the east coast.
The models have not slowed down for the period near the turn of the month and February as a whole and hopefully we will see ensemble support for a system to end the month. If not, we are entering the most favorable month of Weak and moderate El Niño’s, with the classic stormy pattern on the LR. If we are snowless by Feb 15 I think the panic will be justified...but until then just sit tight.
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In 10 days on the GEFS it showed it almost in the COD. Which forecast was that for and does it show it in the COD by 1/27?
A lot of us has been watching that time frame over the past days.
Stormlover
Member
You said I think there might be a very tiny window from Jan 26-28th. For something but then that window closes fast
so you posted our window closes fast, but were only talking about the last 3 days of the month? yeah, right
Heck, late this month could be fun. Don't jump the "gun" so fast. Just because you don't see snow for your area on the models anytime soon, that doesn't mean squat. There could be a winter storm showing up anytime - who knows.
Jessy89
Member
I wasn’t speaking of February. Can’t see enough of February yet to tell. But the 26-28th there energy around looks like a clipper I’m very curious to see what can happen with that piece of energy can it tap the gulf?
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12z gefs to no surprise looks nothing like the gfs OP for those buying into every single LR run . Gefs vs gfs
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Stormlover
Member
So your post about the window closing only referred to 3 days(after Jan 28, since it didn't include Feb. Good grief. A post about the window closing for 3 days(not that it is anyway). LOLLOLOLOLOLOL
GEFS ensembles are still encouraging out past 200hr. Shocker
Good grief this gefs run is very cold
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Unfortunately some of the GEFS members do look like they support the idea but not that many. Thank god. Toss the 12z GFS in the trash.
Kylo
Member
The ridging shifting to the Aleutian’s has been shown and supported by MJO. All anyone saw was the PV dropping into the lakes. The PV will drop down, only took 17 cutters to yank it down. Question is how much lag will phase 5-6 have on the pattern as we start Feb. The end of the GEFS is already showing the trough pulling back west, which makes sense. I personally think it will be closer to 2nd week of Feb until we get into a legit favored pattern.
Only speaking for NC, Al/TX may do well with what is coming up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just to add to everyone else's response and what I mentioned a day or so ago and to remain as blunt as possible, the pattern change and associated storms haven't gotten pushed back, the pattern looks favorable-very favorable a classic southern slider after January 26th & going into early February, if that time frame gets pushed back in time I'll let you know.
Still interested in the 23rd-25th. Some gefs members starting look much different now
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Can we please keep the arguing and bickering out of this thread ??
Stormlover
Member
Sorry, but when someone posts the window closes and then claims they were only talking about 3 days, since February wasn't included, it had to be called out. Back on topic.....