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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Too bad it’s the CMC . Just shows how wonky these changes are from run to run


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It seems to me this storm the CMC has will depend partly on what our system on the 20th does. The CMC did show a similar idea last night so at least it is consistent 2 runs in a row with this idea. I'd like to see the GFS come around though.
 
Woah woah pause, that system on the 17th might give me a shot at some snow showers, shows almost a dynamical cooling situation, temps go from the upper 40s then precip starts and then it’s in the 30s, this is depicted on the NAM 12km
 
Snow showers for Carolinas with fast moving clipper on 27th


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DixieBlizzard said:
Larry, aren't we cruising through 4 and 5 relatively quickly and at low amplitude? It seems we will be back to 7 by late next week, no?
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In about 10 days or so the MJO is projected to go past phase 5. The amplitude isn't as high as last time but it isn't low either. Yes it is more rapid move. It spent two weeks just in phase last time!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is there anything in particular you see in the models that makes you think the 25-27th is a period to watch ?
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I can tell you what I see. I see a clipper of some sort. Maybe if it was to dig a little it could interact with gulf moisture. That would be a good outcome for more people


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SoutheastRidge said:
Is there anything in particular you see in the models that makes you think the 25-27th is a period to watch ?
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The energy looks great for this at least on the last 2 GFS runs. We have a good wave coming down from Idaho and phasing a bit late, but if we get a more neutral tilt just a bit earlier, we could see something come out of it, assuming such feature keeps showing up.
gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png
 
Yuck at the long range GFS model.The EPO completely breaks down,tho it comes back towards the end of this run. The PNA become negative and there's no signs of west based Greenland blocking. This could be a response to the MJO being at phase 4-6,tho I'm not sure. Hopefully the GFS ensembles look a lot better than this crap.gfs_z500a_namer_44.png
 
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I think there might be a very tiny window from Jan 26-28th. For something but then that window closes fast


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JLL1973 said:
i have a feeling everyone got caught up in all the hype. including me
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There are multiple storms/potential storms still showing up on various models, just because there isn’t any bone shattering once in a generation cold snap or a big time snowstorm showing up doesn’t mean that there’s not an opportunity, and in regards to the GFS warming up at the end, it’ll change in the next few runs.
 
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