Pattern Jammin' January

[deltadog03]

LOL

 

[TheBatman]

It’s actually kinda funny getting different solutions every six hours


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Your right. If you don’t like what you see just wait 6 hours. Kinda like a reset button every run.

 

[Fountainguy97]

UK holds with that suppressed look from 12z. Really no change.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Good grief look at that ridge on the west coast

 

[GaWx]

SE Ridge clearly holding back the advance of the cold more on the 0Z GEFS on 1/22-3. Unfavorable MJO ftl? Much of the SE is actually warmer than normal now on 1/23 on this run.

 

[deltadog03]

SE Ridge clearly holding back the advance of the cold more on the 0Z GEFS on 1/22-3. Unfavorable MJO ftl? Much of the SE is actually warmer than normal now on 1/23 on this run.

Not sure yet Larry. 1st run kind of meh for cold. We shall see. On a good note, SOI nice negative and 30 day avg nearing 0. Good trends even when we see unfavorable MJO for a short time. Don’t think we see same outcome as last time.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Lol @ that Alaskan ridge to end the run

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 is a swing and a miss for our weekend and 23rd storm. Not particularly close at all on either.

 

[J.C.]

FV3 is a swing and a miss for our weekend and 23rd storm. Not particularly close at all on either.

FV3 has rain all the way into southern Canada for the 23rd storm, and what looks to be thunderstorms down this way. It obviously is irrelevant at this point.

 

[GaWx]

Trends clearly toward delay in dominating SE cold. But this shouldn't be a surprise with the MJO headed toward the warmest phase on average for the SE.

 

[TheBatman]

0z GEFS snowfall

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think we might have to let the 23rd-25th wave go, that time period had a shot but without the 20th cutter bombing or it being a ULL with a ridiculous high pressure diving in, it won't work. Hopefully that wave we were trying to root on bombs for us later.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Let’s hope these big rainers into the NE showing up on tonight’s runs are wrong or you can kiss that snowpack goodbye and it’s back to square one. There is most certainly a fly in the ointment. MJO?

 

[snowvol]

0z GEFS snowfallView attachment 11315

The ensembles keep showing this but the both gfs model runs are not jiving with it to well right now. Hopefully the euro will look better. Of course the gfs will probably look totally different in the morning. Beginning to wonder if I buy all that cold it keeps teasing us with. We are seeing some crazy run to run differences for sure.

 

[TheBatman]

The ensembles keep showing this but the both gfs model runs are not jiving with it to well right now. Hopefully the euro will look better. Of course the gfs will probably look totally different in the morning. Beginning to wonder if I buy all that cold it keeps teasing us with.

Yea having my doubts as well. I felt like we have took a step back during the last 24 hours.

 

[CentralGAColdFront]

Let’s hope these big rainers into the NE showing up on tonight’s runs are wrong or you can kiss that snowpack goodbye and it’s back to square one. There is most certainly a fly in the ointment. MJO?

When is there ever not a fly in the ointment?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GEFS means has steadily gotten worse. My mean has gone down almost 5 inches in the last 24 hours. Pretty telling I would say.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS still looks good. Toggling back through the last 7 days you can tell it really is delayed when trying to push that West Atlantic ridge offshore but it’s getting there. GFS must have a big time bias trying to speed the progression of these events up. With all of that said the major pattern change is still 200+ Hours out for many of us so I do remain extremely skeptical

 

[snowvol]

Euro does look about 100-150 miles south at hr. 72 versus GFS. Now it may not translate to nothing just a observation.

 

[Brent]

The 0z Euro is snowing here Saturday now

lmfao

Actually has some accumulations