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Pattern Jammin January 2024

GFS snow/ice maps for the 2nd system. The ice includes both systems.
snku_024h-imp.us_se.png
zr_acc-imp.us_se.png
 
Ok weather fam, talk to me about this one. What do we need to do to make this work for us East of the Apps? This seems to be our last chance before we warm up some. We need to dig this further West & South right? Seems like the cold air is there. It digs so aggressively North to South as it seems we are in the process of losing our digging mechanism as the pattern is transitioning. Appreciate the knowledge on here!
ecmwf-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-5752000.png
 
Ok weather fam, talk to me about this one. What do we need to do to make this work for us East of the Apps? This seems to be our last chance before we warm up some. We need to dig this further West & South right? Seems like the cold air is there. It digs so aggressively North to South as it seems we are in the process of losing our digging mechanism as the pattern is transitioning. Appreciate the knowledge on here!
View attachment 141947
Yes I noticed that too on the Euro. I am no expert, but it has that “bomb” potential on it just based on H5. I would agree it needs to dig a little more or go more negative tilt, similar to the storm next week.
 
GFS is far more amped with with system, but we rain and eastern Tennessee/the mountains win. Just not a great look with the orientation of the energy. Would be a different story if we had lower heights in the Atlantic or a true 50/50 low
 
GFS is far more amped with with system, but we rain and eastern Tennessee/the mountains win. Just not a great look with the orientation of the energy. Would be a different story if we had lower heights in the Atlantic or a true 50/50 low
I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

Screen Shot 2024-01-13 at 11.20.31 AM.png
 
I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

View attachment 142007
I guess we kind of do have one, but it seemingly moves out quick, so WAA is a big issue.
It’s a whole different story if we can tilt our early week system and that by itself would slow the whole Atlantic down.
Key here is digging that trough around Newfoundland farther south and slowing down the low that bombs out. Would also help if we dug the southern wave some more E07768EB-EEBF-41E1-AEC3-8FE068243846.png82FDED64-ADEF-40A7-AF1C-B1B032CBF7F3.png
 
I mean we sorta do have a good Atlantic. I could see some tweaks with this and things turning really interesting...

View attachment 142007
That high pressure in SE Canada is up to 1033, I noticed it was 1031 and further north on 6Z. At least there is better high placement compared to the earlier event, and maybe it can trend stronger and further south.
 
This one has more potential than the Jan 15 wave. Watch this wave entering the SW.. needs to trend stronger, more consolidated, and kick out faster to allow a western ridge to build up. With a trough east of HI that should force a downstream ridge to build over the SW so it's plausible.

That would allow a stronger gulf low to develop. You will see precip breaking out over TX, AR, LA, then really get going when the PJ wave starts dropping in.Screenshot_20240113-113022.png
 
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