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Pattern Jammin January 2024

This threat for late next week is deja vu all over again. Very similar to early next week where we are looking for a TPV extension out into the 50/50 region and trying to get the northern stream to dig way south and sharpen at the right time. Ugh. I think the early week one has the better chance of the 2, and that one doesn't look good at the moment....but we'll see
 
griteater said:
This threat for late next week is deja vu all over again. Very similar to early next week where we are looking for a TPV extension out into the 50/50 region and trying to get the northern stream to dig way south and sharpen at the right time. Ugh. I think the early week one has the better chance of the 2, and that one doesn't look good at the moment....but we'll see
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I agree. The one late next week is poorly timed, as modeled, but things will likely change between now and then. I'm done watching the Tuesday one. I'm back to checking the GEFS at 5:30 pm.
 
griteater said:
This threat for late next week is deja vu all over again. Very similar to early next week where we are looking for a TPV extension out into the 50/50 region and trying to get the northern stream to dig way south and sharpen at the right time. Ugh. I think the early week one has the better chance of the 2, and that one doesn't look good at the moment....but we'll see
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I agree. Happy western guys will score, good for them. Interested to watch this unfold , Modelogy wise tommorow. The canadian suite is consistent on amping things up more. Its slower with trailing energy. But it has that tpv the furthest west. Which will cold rain you. If it has it placed wrong by 75- 100 miles, could make a big difference.
On the Other hand, the gfs for 3 runs in a row today has shown some late blooming. This is the best way for rdu- northeastward to score imo. Then theres the euro with cottonmouth, dry bones. Im almost tempted to root for the gfs soloution and take the trash can, mulch topper. That and im hoping the canadian suite, after the storm tonight gets up into the lakes region', maybe,just maybe can altar the tpv back east Some.
 
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Pilotwx said:
If your East of the Mountains In NC , VA and upper SC winter is going to have to wait for snow. West or NW winds will dry any moisture up anywhere East of the Apps. West of Apps, Tenn., Northern ALA, Miss., Southern SC and GA should see some snow if you look at the overall Jet structure and High placement , and more than likely we will see several l clippers during this period then those close to the gulf will probably see some small disturbance riding south along gulf during this Arctic outbreak. Just going off past history

Until I see a high pressure funneling the cold air down the east side of APPs. and not the brutal cold , we are in a holding pattern for winter storms that produce SNOW. Things can change fast but as of now this is how i see it.
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This remains the same until we see a bigger change with the overall flow
 
As fro mentioned somewhere here. Need the mjo, +pna and the overall pattern with a -nao on board. Maybe aligns in fab feb
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems we're always misssing something. But we have also been in supposedly great shape for classic NC snow storms a few times the past few years and ended up with nothing.
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It's always thread the needle in any pattern imo Ive seen 0 in supposedly the best patterns and over a foot the first week in December in the worst.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems we're always misssing something. But we have also been in supposedly great shape for classic NC snow storms a few times the past few years and ended up with nothing.
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I'm a lay person here on winter weather but cannot seem to square this with an actual solid opportunity in the next two weeks. Not saying it cannot happen but not in alignment.



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CaryWx said:
I'm a lay person here on winter weather but cannot seem to square this with an actual solid opportunity in the next two weeks. Not saying it cannot happen but not in alignment.



View attachment 141847
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This was a topic that Grit and Webb got into last weekend and it had me doing some research and you would honestly be surprised, I know I was, at some of the winter storms we had in the Carolinas in phase 3-6. Below are just a few

January 1987- phase 3/4
February 1989- phase 4
March 1993- phase 4
December 1993- phase 5
February 1994- phase 4
February 2004-phase 6
March 2009- phase 5
February 2014-phase 5

Obviously there are a lot others but these really stood out to me. Also look at where the MJO was last January…phases 8,1,2 and we absolutely torched. Not to say that the MJO isn’t important, but we gotta remember it’s one of many indicies.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems we're always misssing something. But we have also been in supposedly great shape for classic NC snow storms a few times the past few years and ended up with nothing.
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We have definitely not been in good shape for any sort of a classic NC snow storm the past few years.
 
Chazwin said:
This was a topic that Grit and Webb got into last weekend and it had me doing some research and you would honestly be surprised, I know I was, at some of the winter storms we had in the Carolinas in phase 3-6. Below are just a few

January 1987- phase 3/4
February 1989- phase 4
March 1993- phase 4
December 1993- phase 5
February 1994- phase 4
February 2004-phase 6
March 2009- phase 5
February 2014-phase 5

Obviously there are a lot others but these really stood out to me. Also look at where the MJO was last January…phases 8,1,2 and we absolutely torched. Not to say that the MJO isn’t important, but we gotta remember it’s one of many indicies.
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The MJO has become discovered in just the last few years in the weather forum world and has more magical power attributed to it than it actually deserves. It's a fine tool to have in the toolbox, but it's not the Holy grail of winter weather forecasting that some weenies think it is.
 
Chazwin said:
Of course it is…you want all the indicies in your camp. However, let’s remember that the last true boardwide winter storm, January 1988, occurred with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA
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I had no idea it had been that long. If that’s true then we really are in trouble for the future.
 
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