Pattern Jammin January 2024

[severestorm]

At least TN scores!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs oth has a slighty weaker TPV in SE can, but the overall height field is more suppressed towards the SE so it’s colder so far

 

[Mitch West]

Cold air in place then the energy stops flowing. ?

 

[accu35]

Here she comes

 

[WNC_Fort]

Yep. Just like I feared. We get the cold and suddenly the tap stops flowing. Winter in the Carolinas the past few years. Either warm/wet or cold/dry.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the GFS is on the much warmer side of its ens for the SE. gefs is much colder

 

[EmersonGA]

When is the last time NW Georgia had ZR in this setup? Never?

View attachment 140637

1994 but that’s it. Epic sledding and days of bitter cold. It was depressing how long it took to go below freezing.

 

[Mitch West]

Keeps trending colder but it just seems like the true cold air is struggling to get past the Apps. Either way, we need the energy to keep firing after the Mid South system. This place is going to be a dumpster fire if they get slammed with the same looking Winter storm they have got the last 3 Winters & the cold moves in & out with nothing to show for it East of the Apps.

But, positive vibes only.

 

[Mitch West]

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23 man 23

 

[TheBatman]

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Looking good for a lot west of the apps.

 

[griteater]

Keeps trending colder but it just seems like the true cold air is struggling to get past the Apps. Either way, we need the energy to keep firing after the Mid South system. This place is going to be a dumpster fire if they get slammed with the same looking Winter storm they have got the last 3 Winters & the cold moves in & out with nothing to show for it East of the Apps.

But, positive vibes only.View attachment 140658View attachment 140659

Just got to give it time and let the pattern marinate like a good steak. May mess up and over cook it on the grill, but it could be luscious if things come together. And we still have Fab Webb Feb to look forward to

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z GEFS

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Need the tail end of the arctic front to hang along the Gulf coast long enough to induce cyclogenesis, it's alot to ask for but possible I guess.

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[Myfrotho704_]

Now this right here, interests me way further

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Latest weeklies goes from the expected initial overextension to a absolutely beautiful H5 pattern late jan/early Feb with a classic +PNA, which has been getting better each run
Worth noting the EPS is already showing the overextension, we’re getting there ?

 

[NCSNOW]

Need the tail end of the arctic front to hang along the Gulf coast long enough to induce cyclogenesis, it's alot to ask for but possible I guess.

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Exactly what happened in Jan 2000. Little northern vort dropped straight down undetected on a stalled artic front in GOM and off she went.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

1994 but that’s it. Epic sledding and days of bitter cold. It was depressing how long it took to go below freezing.

Mods, sorry if banter- but if anyone has an Eric Webb level synopsis of how this happened (or even half that), I’d love to see this. Not sure if Larry (GaWx) is still around or not but I figured he’d know

 

[lexxnchloe]

Mods, sorry if banter- but if anyone has an Eric Webb level (or even half that), I’d love to see this.

Eric Webb level?

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[BullCityWx]

I counted 20/30 members at TDF with at least a trace of snow within the 24 hour window provided by the GEFS. There’s nothing obscene accumulation wise but I would say that’s a pretty decent signal at this lead time.